PIT beat NYI 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.51 expected goals to 2.42. PIT outshot NYI 41 to 31. M. Bunting led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Beauvillier had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| PIT | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 3:54PITA. Beauvillier0.20 xG
- 2nd 1:36PITM. BuntingPP0.14 xG
- 3rd 6:57PITE. MalkinPP0.11 xG
- 3rd 12:59NYIA. Lee0.12 xG
- 3rd 16:10NYIB. Horvat0.03 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.42 xGPIT 3.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:03 | 2:39 |
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:16 | 2:37 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:31 | 2:38 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:17 | 1:22 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:00 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 1:20 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 1:25 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:20 | 2:34 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 1:19 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:37 | 0:00 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:31 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:15 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:06 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:56 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:54 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:55 | 3:06 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Hogberg | 41 | 38 | 3 | .927 | 57:00 | Loss |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bunting | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:32 | 1:22 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:57 | 1:53 |
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:26 | 1:22 |
| E. Malkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 1:53 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 1:37 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Rust | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:32 | 1:06 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:14 | 1:06 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:57 | 1:37 |
| B. Lizotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Nieto | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:15 | 1:06 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26:51 | 1:53 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:14 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:56 | 0:00 |
| R. Shea | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| N. Clurman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 59:22 | Win |
| T. Jarry | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 3.2, PIT 3.2 | NYI 2, PIT 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 29.5, PIT 30.0 | NYI 31, PIT 41 |
| Win chance | NYI 50% | PIT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT S. Crosby | 2.8 | 3 | 1.08 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| PIT B. Rust | 2.7 | 5 | 0.83 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.5 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.5 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.4 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.4 | 6 | 0.69 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.3 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.3 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.3 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.1 | 1 | 0.66 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.0 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.6 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.6 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| PIT P. Tomasino | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.4 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.2 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT B. Lizotte | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.1 | 6 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| PIT M. Nieto | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT P. Joseph | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT R. Shea | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.