Game Recap: NYI 4, STL 3 (OT), March 10, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI4

Final/OTTue, Mar 10, 2026Every game that night

STL3

NYI beat STL 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.56 expected goals to 2.79. NYI outshot STL 49 to 23. J. Snuggerud led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Snuggerud had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. I. Sorokin stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYI	0	1	2	1	4
STL	1	2	0	0	3

1st 4:06STLP. Broberg0.26 xG
2nd 9:10STLD. Holloway0.05 xG
2nd 10:37STLJ. Snuggerud0.22 xG
2nd 17:50NYIJ. Pageau0.37 xG
3rd 5:52NYIC. RitchiePP0.33 xG
3rd 6:52NYIB. HorvatPP0.24 xG
OT 2:11NYIM. Barzal0.15 xG

Team Stats

NYISTL

49Shots on goal23

4.56Expected goals2.79

74Shot attempts45

355v5 shots on goal17

2/4Power play0/2

25Hits21

12Blocked shots12

2Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways13

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 4.56 xGSTL 2.79 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI50 on goal, 4 scored

STL23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	+1	0	21:21	4:18
C. Ritchie	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	-1	0	14:02	4:06
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	9	0	0	-1	0	21:53	4:15
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	1	6	0	+1	0	17:55	0:26
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	5	2	0	0	0	17:06	4:14
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:41	1:31
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	5	1	0	+1	0	16:28	1:35
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	5	5	0	-1	0	16:22	1:15
O. Palat	LW	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	12:19	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:07	0:02
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:07	1:14
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	9:25	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	6	1	1	+1	0	27:21	4:41
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	-1	0	19:41	1:08
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	21:44	0:03
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:10	0:17
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	15:19	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	23	20	3	.870	61:50	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	2	3	8	3	0	+2	2	19:46	2:10
R. Thomas	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+3	0	16:21	2:11
D. Holloway	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+2	0	20:22	2:09
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	4	19:04	1:50
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:50	1:49
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	15:02	1:44
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:02	0:00
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:58	1:50
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:27	1:51
O. Stenberg	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:59	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:51	0:01
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:32	0:00
P. Broberg	D	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	24:07	2:23
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	20:25	0:05
T. Lindstein	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:39	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	23:39	1:57
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	0	21:45	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	15:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	49	46	4	.939	61:55	OT loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat14:51E. Heineman14:14M. Barzal15:24

Line 2A. Lee14:32J. Pageau14:22S. Holmstrom13:40

Line 3B. Schenn11:56C. Ritchie9:56O. Palat12:16

Line 4C. Cizikas8:50M. Gatcomb9:25M. Shabanov8:53

Pair 1A. Pelech19:44T. DeAngelo17:58

Pair 2R. Pulock16:13M. Schaefer19:32

Pair 3S. Mayfield12:06C. Soucy13:58

STL

Line 1D. Holloway16:36J. Snuggerud16:38R. Thomas11:49

Line 2J. Kyrou12:28J. Neighbours12:08D. Dvorsky11:32

Line 3P. Buchnevich13:46J. Drouin12:55O. Stenberg12:30

Line 4P. Suter11:03A. Toropchenko8:14J. Finley8:53

Pair 1L. Mailloux18:48P. Broberg17:04

Pair 2C. Fowler17:32T. Tucker14:53

Pair 3C. Parayko17:22T. Lindstein13:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrayden Schenn NYI Faces STL, his team until Mar 20261 A, 5 SOG
HometownScott Mayfield NYI Plays in his hometown0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, STL 3.0	NYI 4, STL 3
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	NYI 26.3, STL 26.4	NYI 49, STL 23
Win chance	STL 52%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	9	0.81	1	35%	1
NYI M. Schaefer	2.5	6	0.76	1	20%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.4	2	0.63	0	27%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.4	2	0.68	1	25%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.3	4	0.89	3	24%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.2	5	0.51	0	23%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.2	2	0.54	1	9%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.1	8	0.57	3	20%	1
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	2	0.67	0	24%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.8	5	0.37	0	20%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.7	1	0.92	2	24%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.6	3	0.48	1	10%	1
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	0	0.28	0	4%	0
STL P. Suter	1.6	3	0.44	0	20%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.6	1	0.26	0	9%	0
NYI B. Schenn	1.5	5	0.54	1	20%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.4	0	0.34	0	9%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.4	0	0.30	0	16%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.4	3	0.44	2	17%	1
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	1	0.58	0	23%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.3	2	0.38	0	16%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	0	0.49	0	22%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	0	0.33	0	6%	0
STL J. Drouin	1.2	0	0.46	0	13%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	0	0.42	1	6%	0
STL O. Stenberg	1.2	0	0.45	0	13%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	1	0.44	1	16%	1
NYI M. Shabanov	1.1	2	0.34	0	11%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.9	1	0.17	0	11%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.8	3	0.16	0	5%	0
STL J. Finley	0.8	1	0.18	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 13 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.