NYI beat TBL 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.86 expected goals to 3.27. S. Holmstrom led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Guentzel had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. I. Sorokin stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 5:39TBLJ. Guentzel0.09 xG
- 2nd 18:16NYIA. Boqvist0.25 xG
- 3rd 6:41NYIK. Palmieri0.08 xG
- 3rd 19:13TBLN. Kucherov0.06 xG
- OT 0:33NYIT. DeAngelo0.13 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 2.86 xGTBL 3.27 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 21:08 | 2:00 |
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:15 | 1:41 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:10 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:11 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 1:50 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 | 1:49 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6:53 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:52 | 0:00 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:39 | 1:48 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:19 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 31:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 22:51 | 0:00 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:12 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 60:33 | Win |
| J. Skarek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
TBL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kucherov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:59 | 5:56 |
| J. Guentzel | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:14 | 4:17 |
| B. Point | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:01 | 4:31 |
| G. Goncalves | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| N. Paul | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:47 | 1:28 |
| B. Hagel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:25 | 1:45 |
| A. Cirelli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 1:20 |
| Z. Girgensons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:15 | 0:04 |
| M. Chaffee | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 4:09 |
| L. Glendening | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Atkinson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5:29 | 0:00 |
| D. Raddysh | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:34 | 4:02 |
| E. Cernak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:12 |
| V. Hedman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:24 | 2:10 |
| R. McDonagh | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 0:06 |
| E. Lilleberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Vasilevskiy | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 58:33 | OT loss |
| M. Tomkins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.7, TBL 3.1 | NYI 3, TBL 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 27.5, TBL 30.0 | NYI 36, TBL 31 |
| Win chance | TBL 57% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL N. Kucherov | 3.6 | 3 | 1.64 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.9 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL J. Guentzel | 2.7 | 7 | 0.93 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| TBL B. Point | 2.6 | 4 | 1.03 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| TBL B. Hagel | 2.6 | 2 | 0.90 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.6 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.5 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.5 | 5 | 0.73 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| TBL V. Hedman | 2.5 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL A. Cirelli | 2.0 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.0 | 5 | 0.50 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| TBL N. Paul | 2.0 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 1.9 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| TBL D. Raddysh | 1.8 | 4 | 0.48 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.7 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| TBL Z. Girgensons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL C. Atkinson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.1 | 3 | 0.42 | 2 | 19% | 0 |
| TBL R. McDonagh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| TBL C. Geekie | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| TBL N. Perbix | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| TBL E. Cernak | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| TBL M. Chaffee | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| TBL E. Lilleberg | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| TBL L. Glendening | 0.7 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| TBL G. Goncalves | 0.7 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI S. Perunovich | 0.6 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.