Game Recap: NYI 3, TBL 5, March 29, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI3

FinalSat, Mar 29, 2025Every game that night

TBL5

TBL beat NYI 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.65 expected goals to 4.57. NYI outshot TBL 38 to 24. N. Kucherov led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). N. Kucherov had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. J. Johansson stopped 35 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	0	3	3
TBL	3	1	1	5

1st 2:02TBLN. Kucherov0.09 xG
1st 7:31TBLN. Perbix0.16 xG
1st 17:57TBLB. Point0.18 xG
2nd 19:43TBLB. Point0.06 xG
3rd 5:58NYIR. PulockPP0.03 xG
3rd 7:47NYIM. Gatcomb0.02 xG
3rd 8:47NYIT. DeAngelo0.19 xG
3rd 19:46TBLJ. GuentzelEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

NYITBL

38Shots on goal24

4.57Expected goals3.65

72Shot attempts52

295v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/0

30Hits14

12Blocked shots12

0Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways14

9Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 4.57 xGTBL 3.65 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI38 on goal, 3 scored

TBL24 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	1	1	3	3	0	+2	17:01	2:15
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	5	2	0	-3	15:09	2:15
M. Gatcomb	C	1	0	1	2	4	1	+2	11:36	0:00
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	19:04	1:03
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-3	18:08	1:03
H. Fasching	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:30	0:00
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	16:09	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	15:44	0:05
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	15:22	2:10
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	14:12	1:03
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	11:46	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	11:05	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	23:44	1:03
R. Pulock	D	1	0	1	1	2	4	-2	21:17	2:15
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	20:51	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	19:48	2:15
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	19:25	1:03
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	15:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	23	19	4	.826	57:57	Loss
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	3	4	6	0	1	+4	0	19:43	0:00
J. Guentzel	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+4	0	18:26	0:00
B. Point	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	+3	0	16:29	0:00
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	20:30	0:00
A. Cirelli	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	17:53	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	16:45	0:00
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	15:49	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	13:37	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:25	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:04	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	11:25	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	+3	0	22:03	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	20:37	0:00
N. Perbix	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:41	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	21:31	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+3	0	17:21	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:21	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	11:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	38	35	3	.921	59:43	Win
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Duclair NYI Faces TBL, his team until Apr 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, TBL 3.6	NYI 3, TBL 5
Total goals	6.5	8
Shots on goal	NYI 28.1, TBL 30.8	NYI 38, TBL 24
Win chance	TBL 61%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	2.9	6	1.37	4	33%	1
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	3	0.67	0	31%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.8	3	0.98	2	37%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.5	1	0.92	1	30%	0
TBL B. Point	2.5	4	0.99	2	39%	2
NYI A. Lee	2.4	5	0.50	1	24%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.3	1	0.53	0	11%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.2	5	0.59	0	26%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.1	1	0.80	2	12%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.1	2	0.54	1	12%	1
TBL N. Paul	1.8	1	0.52	0	23%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	2	0.61	0	23%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.7	1	0.54	0	20%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	2	0.29	1	4%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	1	0.53	0	17%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	1	0.43	0	22%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	3	0.47	0	16%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	1	0.50	0	22%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.4	1	0.26	0	6%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.4	0	0.43	0	6%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.3	4	0.26	0	13%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.1	1	0.25	1	6%	1
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	0	0.17	0	10%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	0	0.37	1	4%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.0	3	0.30	1	10%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.0	1	0.32	0	12%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	0.9	2	0.27	1	8%	0
NYI H. Fasching	0.9	2	0.21	0	9%	0
TBL J. Moser	0.9	0	0.29	0	5%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.16	0	9%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.8	2	0.22	1	13%	1
TBL N. Perbix	0.8	2	0.26	1	4%	1
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	0	0.22	0	3%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.8	0	0.13	0	9%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.7	1	0.23	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.