Game Recap: NYI 2, TBL 0, December 6, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI2

FinalSat, Dec 6, 2025Every game that night

TBL0

NYI beat TBL 2-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.21 expected goals to 3.80. TBL outshot NYI 32 to 19. A. Cirelli had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. I. Sorokin stopped 32 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	0	2	2
TBL	0	0	0	0

3rd 12:46NYIC. RitchiePP0.26 xG
3rd 19:58NYIC. CizikasEN0.45 xG

Team Stats

NYITBL

19Shots on goal32

2.21Expected goals3.80

39Shot attempts74

155v5 shots on goal22

1/3Power play0/2

22Hits21

22Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways10

2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.21 xGTBL 3.80 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI17 on goal, 2 scored

TBL32 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Cizikas	C	1	0	1	1	2	2	+1	0	14:04	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	13:45	1:12
C. Ritchie	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	12:41	1:12
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	22:13	3:20
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:45	1:14
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	18:16	1:11
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	16:38	3:15
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	15:44	3:17
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:13	3:18
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:56	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:35	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	10:29	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	16:25	1:15
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	+1	0	24:27	3:20
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:38	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	21:56	0:06
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	18:39	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	11:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	32	32	0	1.000	59:50	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	0	1	1	-1	0	22:39	2:12
B. Hagel	LW	5	3	0	-1	4	22:04	2:11
A. Cirelli	C	6	2	0	-1	0	21:33	2:09
N. Paul	LW	3	0	1	-1	0	17:57	2:09
Y. Gourde	C	1	0	1	0	0	17:36	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	1	1	0	0	0	14:21	0:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	0	0	13:43	1:49
P. Holmberg	RW	1	2	0	0	0	13:43	0:00
D. James	C	1	1	0	0	0	13:06	1:51
G. Goncalves	C	0	1	0	0	0	10:32	1:51
J. Finley	C	1	2	0	0	0	8:50	1:45
C. Douglas	C	2	1	0	0	0	5:55	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	1	0	0	-1	0	23:28	1:53
C. D'Astous	D	2	0	1	-1	0	22:22	2:07
J. Moser	D	1	1	1	0	0	19:11	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	3	4	2	0	0	18:15	0:00
M. Crozier	D	3	2	1	0	0	16:44	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	1	0	2	16:43	0:03

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	18	17	1	.944	56:46	Loss
B. Halverson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat15:35E. Heineman14:55M. Shabanov12:27

Line 2A. Lee12:14M. Barzal12:46M. Tsyplakov10:35

Line 3S. Holmstrom12:35C. Ritchie11:29A. Duclair10:55

Line 4K. MacLean11:09M. Gatcomb10:19C. Cizikas8:59

Pair 1M. Schaefer18:49R. Pulock17:34

Pair 2A. Pelech17:38T. DeAngelo15:10

Pair 3S. Mayfield15:25A. Boqvist11:46

TBL

Line 1J. Guentzel15:32B. Hagel15:45A. Cirelli13:40

Line 2Y. Gourde15:34P. Holmberg13:43Z. Girgensons12:27

Line 3N. Paul12:24O. Bjorkstrand11:44D. James11:05

Line 4G. Goncalves8:41J. Finley7:05C. Douglas5:55

Pair 1V. Hedman16:30M. Crozier16:32

Pair 2D. Raddysh16:16J. Moser16:41

Pair 3C. D'Astous14:59E. Lilleberg15:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Duclair NYI Faces TBL, his team until Apr 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.7, TBL 3.2	NYI 2, TBL 0
Total goals	5.9	2
Shots on goal	NYI 28.0, TBL 27.8	NYI 19, TBL 32
Win chance	TBL 58%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.1	1	0.75	0	32%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	3.0	0	1.10	0	40%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.7	0	0.83	0	24%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.6	4	0.56	0	15%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.6	5	0.92	0	31%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.6	0	0.52	1	24%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.2	1	0.71	0	10%	0
TBL N. Paul	2.0	3	0.57	0	24%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	1	0.60	0	22%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	6	0.64	0	24%	0
TBL V. Hedman	1.8	0	0.70	0	11%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.7	0	0.37	1	8%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.7	0	0.43	0	21%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	1	0.24	0	4%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.6	2	0.47	0	15%	0
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	1	0.48	0	16%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.4	2	0.25	1	12%	1
TBL M. Crozier	1.3	3	0.17	0	2%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.3	1	0.22	0	13%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.2	1	0.31	0	16%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.2	1	0.30	0	5%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	0	0.41	0	18%	0
TBL P. Holmberg	1.1	1	0.29	0	11%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.1	2	0.24	0	14%	0
TBL D. James	1.1	1	0.30	0	13%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.0	2	0.39	0	7%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	0.9	2	0.22	0	8%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	1	0.14	0	4%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.8	1	0.18	1	8%	1
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	3	0.27	0	3%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	0.8	1	0.19	0	6%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.16	0	8%	0
TBL J. Finley	0.8	1	0.22	0	10%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.7	0	0.29	0	11%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.5	2	0.10	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.