Game Recap: NYI 2, UTA 1, January 11, 2025

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Game Recap

NYI2

FinalSat, Jan 11, 2025Every game that night

UTA1

NYI beat UTA 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.02 expected goals to 1.94. NYI outshot UTA 32 to 22. B. Nelson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Lee had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. M. Hogberg stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	0	0	2	2
UTA	0	1	0	1

2nd 1:13UTAN. Schmaltz0.11 xG
3rd 3:36NYIB. Nelson0.15 xG
3rd 18:35NYIM. Barzal0.37 xG

Team Stats

NYIUTA

32Shots on goal22

3.02Expected goals1.94

62Shot attempts59

245v5 shots on goal19

0/3Power play0/2

25Hits23

24Blocked shots22

6Penalty minutes8

10Giveaways24

1Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.02 xGUTA 1.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI30 on goal, 2 scored

UTA21 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	22:10	4:16
B. Nelson	C	1	1	2	4	2	1	+2	0	20:43	4:13
A. Lee	LW	0	2	2	7	1	0	+2	2	17:32	3:57
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	20:42	4:00
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:31	1:44
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:25	1:52
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	14:53	1:10
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:04	1:39
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	12:21	0:00
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:59	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:46	0:00
M. Martin	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	6:33	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	2	27:18	3:40
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	7	4	+2	2	23:41	0:16
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	22:25	1:01
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	21:25	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:25	2:12
G. Hutton	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Hogberg	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
J. Skarek	0	0	0	–	0:00

UTA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Cooley	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	23:16	3:03
N. Schmaltz	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	19:24	3:08
C. Keller	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:23	3:05
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:11	1:36
B. Hayton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	14:46	0:49
K. Stenlund	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	14:20	0:00
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:23	2:28
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:16	0:00
J. McBain	C	0	0	0	2	3	4	-1	0	13:16	0:00
L. Crouse	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	12:27	0:57
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:05	0:50
L. O'Brien	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	8:34	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	2	14:54	1:09
M. Sergachev	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	26:41	2:51
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	21:16	0:00
I. Cole	D	0	0	0	0	2	5	-1	0	20:40	0:04
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:51	0:00
N. DeSimone	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Ingram	32	30	2	.938	58:48	Loss
K. Vejmelka	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnders Lee UTA First game against NYI since he left (his team until Apr 2026)2 A, 7 SOG
Old teamMatias Maccelli NYI Faces UTA, his team until Mar 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 3.2, UTA 3.0	NYI 2, UTA 1
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	NYI 29.3, UTA 29.1	NYI 32, UTA 22
Win chance	NYI 52%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
UTA C. Keller	2.6	1	0.93	0	31%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.6	3	0.70	0	30%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.6	2	0.82	2	23%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.5	7	0.63	2	28%	0
NYI N. Dobson	2.4	5	0.61	0	11%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.3	4	0.73	2	32%	1
UTA L. Cooley	2.1	1	0.73	1	24%	0
UTA N. Schmaltz	2.1	3	0.78	1	24%	1
NYI K. Palmieri	2.0	2	0.60	0	25%	0
UTA M. Sergachev	1.9	2	0.71	0	11%	0
UTA N. Bjugstad	1.7	0	0.36	0	16%	0
UTA M. Kesselring	1.6	3	0.36	1	7%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.6	0	0.56	0	24%	0
UTA B. Hayton	1.6	0	0.42	0	16%	0
UTA J. Doan	1.6	1	0.45	0	18%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	1	0.31	0	5%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.5	1	0.46	0	17%	0
UTA L. Crouse	1.5	1	0.36	0	18%	0
UTA M. Maccelli	1.5	2	0.50	0	15%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	3	0.33	0	6%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.3	2	0.42	0	16%	0
UTA K. Stenlund	1.2	1	0.22	0	13%	0
UTA A. Kerfoot	1.1	0	0.40	0	13%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.1	0	0.27	0	12%	0
UTA J. McBain	1.1	2	0.39	0	16%	0
UTA I. Cole	1.0	0	0.25	0	4%	0
UTA O. Maatta	1.0	2	0.29	0	5%	0
NYI G. Hutton	1.0	0	0.13	0	4%	0
UTA N. DeSimone	1.0	1	0.24	0	5%	0
UTA L. O'Brien	1.0	2	0.17	0	7%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	2	0.23	0	11%	0
UTA J. Välimäki	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
NYI D. Cholowski	0.9	0	0.28	0	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.7	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.