Game Recap: NYI 5, VAN 2, November 14, 2024

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Game Recap

NYI5

FinalThu, Nov 14, 2024Every game that night

VAN2

NYI beat VAN 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.61 expected goals to 1.68. A. Lee led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Engvall had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. S. Varlamov stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	1	2	2	5
VAN	1	0	1	2

1st 2:40VANJ. Lekkerimäki0.02 xG
1st 17:23NYIJ. PageauPP0.10 xG
2nd 0:14NYIS. Mayfield0.01 xG
2nd 2:10NYIP. Engvall0.22 xG
3rd 11:42NYIA. Lee0.29 xG
3rd 17:54NYIN. DobsonEN0.63 xG
3rd 18:34VANT. Myers0.11 xG

Team Stats

NYIVAN

32Shots on goal26

3.61Expected goals1.68

55Shot attempts56

265v5 shots on goal18

1/5Power play0/1

14Hits26

16Blocked shots14

7Penalty minutes13

14Giveaways16

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.61 xGVAN 1.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI31 on goal, 5 scored

VAN25 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lee	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	18:13	4:50
B. Horvat	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	17:53	4:39
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	20:26	4:00
J. Pageau	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:03	4:55
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	17:59	3:10
P. Engvall	LW	1	0	1	6	0	0	+1	0	15:25	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-2	0	13:00	4:51
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	18:46	4:02
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:47	4:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	+2	0	14:35	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	8:09	0:00
M. Martin	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	5	6:40	0:00
G. Hutton	D	0	2	2	0	1	0	+3	0	13:26	0:00
N. Dobson	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0	23:41	5:52
S. Mayfield	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	2	21:26	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	23:31	0:43
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	15:29	3:08
I. George	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Varlamov	26	24	2	.923	59:49	Win
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	19:04	2:00
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	2	15:06	2:00
T. Blueger	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	2	13:47	0:00
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:38	2:00
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	6	2	1	0	0	18:45	2:00
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:31	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:50	0:00
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	0	8	1	-1	0	12:42	0:00
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	2	12:05	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	11:27	0:00
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:27	0:00
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	9:33	0:00
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	27:00	2:00
T. Myers	D	1	0	1	2	0	4	0	0	19:18	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	-2	0	27:10	2:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	17:59	0:00
E. Brannstrom	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:34	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	13:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
K. Lankinen	31	27	4	.871	57:12	Loss
A. Silovs	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAatu Räty VAN Faces NYI, his team until Jan 20231 SOG
Old teamBo Horvat NYI Faces VAN, his team until Jan 20232 A, 2 SOG
BirthdayAatu Räty VAN Turns 22 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.8, VAN 3.1	NYI 5, VAN 2
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	NYI 27.1, VAN 28.9	NYI 32, VAN 26
Win chance	VAN 56%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	2.7	2	0.75	2	30%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.7	1	0.76	0	26%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.6	2	0.69	1	27%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.5	2	0.78	0	32%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.5	4	0.98	0	11%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.5	3	0.55	2	24%	1
NYI N. Dobson	2.3	2	0.67	1	14%	1
VAN J. Miller	2.3	1	1.03	1	30%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.2	6	0.92	0	31%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	0	0.60	0	26%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.8	0	0.46	0	18%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.8	0	0.42	0	20%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.5	6	0.36	1	14%	1
NYI R. Pulock	1.5	3	0.37	0	9%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.5	2	0.48	1	17%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	2	0.48	1	7%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.5	0	0.48	0	20%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.4	1	0.37	0	18%	0
VAN D. Joshua	1.3	0	0.54	0	22%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.3	0	0.52	0	15%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.2	3	0.38	1	11%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	2	0.28	1	3%	1
NYI O. Wahlstrom	1.1	3	0.21	1	10%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	2	0.38	1	17%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	2	0.28	0	11%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	2	0.22	1	5%	1
VAN E. Brannstrom	1.0	1	0.26	0	3%	0
VAN C. Soucy	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
NYI G. Hutton	1.0	0	0.08	2	5%	0
VAN A. Räty	0.9	1	0.22	0	10%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	0	0.20	0	8%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.7	0	0.13	0	6%	0
VAN V. Desharnais	0.6	0	0.14	0	2%	0
NYI D. Cholowski	0.5	0	0.16	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.