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Game Recap
NYI4
FinalMon, Jan 19, 2026Every game that night
VAN3

NYI beat VAN 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.00 expected goals to 3.92. A. Duclair led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Kampf had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. I. Sorokin stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NYI1214
VAN2013
  1. 1st 2:49VANM. Sasson0.20 xG
  2. 1st 10:11NYIA. Duclair0.09 xG
  3. 1st 14:48VANE. Kane0.08 xG
  4. 2nd 14:34NYIA. DuclairPP0.14 xG
  5. 2nd 15:58NYIR. Pulock0.08 xG
  6. 3rd 10:15NYIT. DeAngelo0.26 xG
  7. 3rd 18:09VAND. O'Connor0.08 xG

Team Stats

NYIVAN
33Shots on goal32
3.00Expected goals3.92
56Shot attempts63
255v5 shots on goal26
1/3Power play0/2
17Hits20
17Blocked shots7
4Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways14
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 3.00 xGVAN 3.92 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdVAN goal, 2:49NYI goal, 10:11VAN goal, 14:48NYI goal, 14:34NYI goal, 15:58NYI goal, 10:15VAN goal, 18:09

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI32 on goal, 4 scored
VAN32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. BarzalC022000+1020:383:30
A. DuclairLW202502+2017:032:28
A. LeeLW011211+2015:001:21
J. PageauC011020+1013:580:00
C. RitchieC011102-2213:252:24
S. HolmstromRW0003000018:150:44
J. DrouinLW0004120017:321:17
E. HeinemanLW000223-1016:313:01
C. CizikasC0002200016:040:00
K. MacLeanC0001300012:590:00
M. GatcombC000120-1011:120:00
M. TsyplakovRW000200-206:430:00
M. SchaeferD022201+1025:042:58
T. DeAngeloD1123220017:080:47
R. PulockD1012020222:080:15
A. PelechD000111-1019:580:00
S. MayfieldD000110-1018:140:00
A. BoqvistD000101+1014:080:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Sorokin32293.90660:00Win
D. Rittich000–0:00

VAN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. KaneLW1015400019:101:21
D. O'ConnorLW101210+2216:200:01
D. KampfC0115300014:540:01
L. KarlssonC0111100012:502:43
N. HoglanderLW011210+1011:360:00
M. SassonC101100029:350:00
E. PetterssonC0004300020:433:32
B. BoeserRW000310-1017:372:39
J. DeBruskLW0003100017:042:44
C. GarlandRW000000-1015:221:16
A. RätyC0003200013:510:00
L. OhgrenLW0001010012:231:15
F. HronekD011100+1028:010:51
E. PetterssonD0110210013:090:00
M. PetterssonD000002-1022:190:03
Z. BuiumD000001+1021:452:28
T. MyersD000011-1218:430:01
T. WillanderD0001010013:101:05
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
K. Lankinen33294.87956:04Loss
J. Patera000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1A. Duclair13:59M. Barzal14:56A. Lee13:07
Line 2J. Drouin13:35S. Holmstrom12:54J. Pageau11:18
Line 3C. Cizikas12:55M. Gatcomb11:12K. MacLean12:15
Line 4E. Heineman10:52C. Ritchie11:01M. Tsyplakov6:43
Pair 1R. Pulock17:38M. Schaefer17:04
Pair 2A. Pelech16:15T. DeAngelo16:18
Pair 3S. Mayfield15:30A. Boqvist14:03

VAN

Line 1D. Kampf14:08D. O'Connor14:26E. Kane16:10
Line 2B. Boeser12:52E. Pettersson12:27J. DeBrusk11:52
Line 3C. Garland11:37A. Räty12:16L. Ohgren10:41
Line 4M. Sasson9:35N. Hoglander9:02L. Karlsson8:25
Pair 1F. Hronek20:37E. Pettersson13:09
Pair 2T. Myers16:57Z. Buium16:11
Pair 3M. Pettersson19:08T. Willander12:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownMathew Barzal NYI Plays near home (born in Coquitlam)2 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNYI 3.1, VAN 3.0NYI 4, VAN 3
Total goals6.07
Shots on goalNYI 27.7, VAN 27.6NYI 33, VAN 32
Win chanceNYI 51%NYI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NYI M. Barzal2.600.96224%0
NYI A. Lee2.520.58124%0
NYI M. Schaefer2.420.64219%0
VAN J. DeBrusk2.430.52025%0
NYI E. Heineman2.320.59026%0
VAN E. Kane2.350.47123%1
VAN B. Boeser2.230.65028%0
VAN C. Garland2.000.56021%0
NYI T. DeAngelo1.930.49210%1
VAN E. Pettersson1.940.75027%0
VAN L. Karlsson1.810.46118%0
VAN L. Ohgren1.710.24012%0
NYI A. Pelech1.610.2805%0
NYI A. Duclair1.550.52222%2
VAN D. O'Connor1.520.33115%1
VAN F. Hronek1.410.4917%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.330.61023%0
NYI C. Ritchie1.310.43117%0
VAN T. Myers1.300.2504%0
NYI R. Pulock1.320.3617%1
VAN M. Sasson1.310.29117%1
NYI J. Pageau1.200.50116%0
NYI J. Drouin1.240.58014%0
VAN A. Räty1.230.33014%0
VAN N. Hoglander1.220.31115%0
VAN T. Willander1.110.3606%0
NYI M. Gatcomb1.110.19012%0
VAN D. Kampf1.050.25111%0
VAN M. Pettersson1.000.3104%0
NYI M. Tsyplakov1.020.2709%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.020.29011%0
VAN Z. Buium1.000.3606%0
NYI S. Mayfield0.810.1604%0
NYI K. MacLean0.810.1708%0
NYI A. Boqvist0.710.2106%0
VAN E. Pettersson0.700.1513%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.