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Game Recap
NYI4
WSH5
WSH beat NYI 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.06 expected goals to 1.86. A. Lee led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). S. Holmstrom had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. L. Thompson stopped 20 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| WSH | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 3:36NYIS. Holmstrom0.04 xG
- 1st 4:50WSHN. Dowd0.55 xG
- 1st 12:10WSHT. WilsonPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 1:15NYIA. Lee0.04 xG
- 2nd 16:28NYIK. MacLean0.20 xG
- 2nd 18:09NYIS. Holmstrom0.07 xG
- 3rd 1:20WSHD. StromePP0.11 xG
- 3rd 7:24WSHT. Wilson0.09 xG
- OT 1:20WSHJ. Chychrun0.09 xG
Team Stats
NYIWSH
24Shots on goal26
1.86Expected goals3.06
46Shot attempts59
155v5 shots on goal19
0/3Power play2/4
21Hits21
19Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways8
7Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYI 1.86 xGWSH 3.06 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 2 | 17:04 | 2:27 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 20:03 | 3:32 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:10 | 2:36 |
| K. MacLean | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:45 | 3:37 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:53 | 3:23 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:15 | 3:32 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 12:21 | 2:28 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:46 | 2:45 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:29 | 3:14 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:28 | 2:24 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:42 | 0:02 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Varlamov | 26 | 21 | 5 | .808 | 61:20 | OT loss |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 4:36 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:30 | 4:56 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 4:37 |
| N. Dowd | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:47 | 0:00 |
| I. Miroshnichenko | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:05 | 1:04 |
| A. Protas | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:21 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:28 | 1:03 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 1:05 |
| H. Lapierre | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:13 | 4:36 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:49 | 4:53 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:25 | 0:09 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 19:14 | 0:12 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 17:30 | 1:13 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 61:10 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYI 2.9, WSH 3.0 | NYI 4, WSH 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | NYI 28.4, WSH 29.0 | NYI 24, WSH 26 |
| Win chance | WSH 53% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 2.8 | 1 | 0.75 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.7 | 1 | 0.58 | 3 | 26% | 1 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.7 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.6 | 0 | 0.72 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.3 | 4 | 0.57 | 3 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 4 | 0.59 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.2 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.8 | 1 | 0.87 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.8 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.5 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.4 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.4 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.3 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.1 | 6 | 0.41 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| WSH I. Miroshnichenko | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.0 | 4 | 0.36 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH H. Lapierre | 1.0 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 0.6 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.6 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.