Game Recap: NYI 1, WSH 4, February 2, 2026

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Game Recap

NYI1

FinalMon, Feb 2, 2026Every game that night

WSH4

WSH beat NYI 4-1, with the chances close: 2.43 expected goals to 2.88. N. Dowd led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Cizikas had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. C. Stevenson stopped 29 of 30.

Team Stats

NYIWSH

30Shots on goal25

2.88Expected goals2.43

73Shot attempts47

225v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play0/4

18Hits27

12Blocked shots23

13Penalty minutes9

13Giveaways16

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYI 2.88 xGWSH 2.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYI30 on goal, 1 scored

WSH24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:22	2:45
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	21:22	2:17
B. Horvat	C	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	20:00	2:54
O. Palat	LW	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	17:28	2:19
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	5	4	2	0	0	16:09	1:32
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	15:24	0:09
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:22	1:05
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	13:56	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:35	1:42
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	1	1	1	-2	2	11:34	1:06
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:02	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:50	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	1	0	2	-2	2	23:23	2:52
A. Pelech	D	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	21:14	0:11
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	20:56	1:06
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	20:05	0:02
C. Soucy	D	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	14:33	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	3	0	0	0	7	13:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	24	21	3	.875	57:08	Loss
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

WSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Dowd	C	1	1	2	1	2	1	+1	2	14:24	0:00
A. Beauvillier	RW	1	0	1	2	2	2	+2	0	18:28	0:23
A. Protas	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	18:06	0:00
A. Ovechkin	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+2	0	17:15	5:37
T. Wilson	RW	0	1	1	2	4	3	0	7	16:50	1:06
E. Frank	RW	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	13:46	1:22
D. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+3	0	19:29	4:25
J. Sourdif	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	17:23	3:54
B. Duhaime	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:22	1:09
R. Leonard	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:50	4:23
H. Lapierre	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:42	1:09
S. Milano	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:21	2:36
J. Carlson	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	21:36	2:12
M. Roy	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	19:23	0:00
M. Fehérváry	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	+2	0	19:00	0:10
R. Sandin	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:25	1:15
J. Chychrun	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	23:19	4:05
T. van Riemsdyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	15:21	1:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Stevenson	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
G. Bjorklund	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYI

Line 1S. Holmstrom12:56E. Heineman13:56J. Drouin12:33

Line 2M. Barzal13:29O. Palat13:03B. Horvat12:00

Line 3C. Cizikas11:29K. MacLean10:36M. Gatcomb10:11

Line 4J. Pageau9:12A. Duclair9:42A. Lee9:01

Pair 1T. DeAngelo19:11A. Pelech16:04

Pair 2R. Pulock15:28M. Schaefer16:08

Pair 3S. Mayfield12:21C. Soucy13:25

WSH

Line 1D. Strome13:53A. Beauvillier14:39A. Ovechkin10:42

Line 2T. Wilson13:15A. Protas15:01J. Sourdif13:27

Line 3E. Frank12:22R. Leonard9:27N. Dowd11:18

Line 4B. Duhaime11:56H. Lapierre7:33S. Milano4:45

Pair 1J. Chychrun18:50M. Roy17:20

Pair 2J. Carlson15:40M. Fehérváry14:42

Pair 3T. Riemsdyk11:58R. Sandin13:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYI 2.9, WSH 3.3	NYI 1, WSH 4
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	NYI 27.4, WSH 28.9	NYI 30, WSH 25
Win chance	WSH 56%	WSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WSH J. Chychrun	3.1	2	0.71	0	21%	0
WSH A. Ovechkin	3.1	2	0.88	1	37%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	2	0.69	0	30%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.3	1	0.51	0	21%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.2	5	0.46	0	23%	0
WSH A. Protas	2.2	2	0.69	1	24%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.2	1	0.76	1	20%	1
WSH J. Carlson	2.2	1	0.70	1	12%	1
WSH D. Strome	2.1	0	0.89	0	28%	0
WSH R. Leonard	2.1	2	0.57	0	18%	0
WSH T. Wilson	2.1	2	0.78	1	30%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.1	1	0.58	0	17%	0
WSH A. Beauvillier	2.0	2	0.35	1	16%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.0	2	0.51	0	11%	0
WSH J. Sourdif	1.8	3	0.57	0	22%	0
WSH E. Frank	1.6	0	0.45	1	19%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.5	1	0.51	0	22%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.3	1	0.25	0	4%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.3	2	0.55	0	21%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.3	1	0.51	0	13%	0
WSH M. Roy	1.3	2	0.31	1	5%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	0	0.32	0	6%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.1	1	0.32	0	14%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.1	0	0.42	0	15%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.1	2	0.18	0	11%	0
WSH R. Sandin	1.1	1	0.31	1	5%	0
WSH M. Fehérváry	1.1	1	0.32	1	7%	1
NYI C. Cizikas	1.0	5	0.25	0	10%	0
WSH N. Dowd	1.0	1	0.32	2	15%	1
WSH S. Milano	0.8	1	0.28	0	12%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	1	0.16	0	7%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.8	1	0.17	0	6%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	3	0.16	0	4%	0
WSH T. Riemsdyk	0.7	1	0.20	0	3%	0
WSH B. Duhaime	0.7	1	0.14	0	8%	0
WSH H. Lapierre	0.6	1	0.19	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.