Game Recap: NYR 4, ANA 5 (OT), March 28, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR4

Final/OTFri, Mar 28, 2025Every game that night

ANA5

ANA beat NYR 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.54 expected goals to 3.79. L. Carlsson led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). T. Terry had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. L. Dostal stopped 26 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYR	2	1	1	0	4
ANA	1	0	3	1	5

1st 3:20NYRA. Fox0.09 xG
1st 16:55ANAA. KillornSH0.33 xG
1st 18:48NYRJ. Miller0.12 xG
2nd 0:14NYRA. Lafrenière0.14 xG
3rd 2:22ANAL. Carlsson0.09 xG
3rd 4:35NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.10 xG
3rd 14:12ANAC. Gauthier0.13 xG
3rd 18:15ANAO. Zellweger0.16 xG
OT 0:59ANAM. McTavish0.15 xG

Team Stats

NYRANA

30Shots on goal33

3.79Expected goals3.54

63Shot attempts58

215v5 shots on goal23

1/7Power play0/4

22Hits18

10Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes12

17Giveaways21

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.79 xGANA 3.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR29 on goal, 4 scored

ANA32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	20:26	6:57
J. Miller	C	1	1	2	1	2	0	-1	2	19:37	3:53
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	1	2	2	0	1	-1	0	16:16	1:53
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	20:04	6:46
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	1	5	0	-2	0	16:39	1:51
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	23:06	6:59
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:15	5:04
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	11:15	1:29
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:05	0:00
N. Aube-Kubel	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	9:10	0:00
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	9:04	0:00
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:49	0:00
A. Fox	D	1	1	2	3	1	2	0	0	29:23	7:03
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	-2	0	21:55	1:51
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	2	16:20	0:06
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:48	0:06
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	2	15:46	0:56
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	13:59	0:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	33	28	5	.848	60:59	OT loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Carlsson	C	1	3	4	3	1	0	+4	0	16:37	2:33
C. Gauthier	LW	1	1	2	5	0	0	+3	0	14:36	0:00
A. Killorn	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+4	0	18:16	2:47
T. Zegras	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	15:39	2:37
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	15:29	2:33
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-2	2	18:01	3:49
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	2	15:29	2:48
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	2	15:19	3:05
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:27	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	12:20	0:00
S. Colangelo	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:37	2:12
N. Nesterenko	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:41	0:03
J. LaCombe	D	0	2	2	0	1	3	0	0	23:36	2:37
O. Zellweger	D	1	1	2	5	0	0	+1	2	18:55	1:49
P. Mintyukov	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:12	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	20:44	0:06
D. Helleson	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	+2	0	20:39	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	15:50	0:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	30	26	4	.867	60:59	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.3, ANA 2.9	NYR 4, ANA 5
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	NYR 29.4, ANA 29.4	NYR 30, ANA 33
Win chance	NYR 56%	ANA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	2	1.18	2	35%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.6	2	0.55	0	25%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.5	4	0.85	0	28%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	2	0.86	1	28%	1
NYR C. Kreider	2.4	3	0.65	0	35%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.3	6	0.75	0	26%	0
ANA M. McTavish	2.3	3	0.69	1	25%	1
NYR J. Miller	2.2	1	1.08	2	31%	1
ANA C. Gauthier	2.1	5	0.49	2	17%	1
ANA T. Zegras	2.0	0	0.65	1	22%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	1	0.48	1	21%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	2	0.59	2	23%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	4	0.54	1	23%	1
NYR A. Fox	1.8	3	0.81	2	12%	1
ANA O. Zellweger	1.8	5	0.29	2	7%	1
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.6	1	0.38	0	15%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.6	0	0.52	0	15%	0
ANA N. Nesterenko	1.6	0	0.29	0	16%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.6	0	0.49	2	10%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.5	3	0.53	4	21%	1
ANA S. Colangelo	1.5	1	0.37	0	19%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	0	0.27	0	5%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.4	4	0.35	1	9%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.25	0	6%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.2	1	0.29	0	13%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	0	0.25	0	5%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	0	0.22	0	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	1.0	1	0.24	0	3%	0
NYR B. Othmann	1.0	1	0.14	0	7%	0
ANA D. Helleson	1.0	2	0.24	0	6%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	0.9	1	0.25	1	5%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	3	0.20	0	6%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	1	0.15	0	7%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.7	0	0.22	0	9%	0
NYR N. Aube-Kubel	0.7	0	0.17	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.