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Game Recap
NYR2
BUF8
BUF beat NYR 8-2, with the chances close: 2.63 expected goals to 2.52. R. Dahlin led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). C. Kreider had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. U. Luukkonen stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| BUF | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
- 1st 1:46BUFJ. Quinn0.11 xG
- 1st 11:58BUFR. Dahlin0.04 xG
- 1st 15:32BUFT. Thompson0.12 xG
- 1st 17:33BUFR. McLeod0.02 xG
- 1st 18:21BUFR. DahlinPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 5:29NYRC. KreiderPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 11:25NYRM. Zibanejad0.20 xG
- 3rd 3:47BUFT. Thompson0.01 xG
- 3rd 5:40BUFR. McLeod0.16 xG
- 3rd 19:24BUFH. Jokiharju0.05 xG
Team Stats
NYRBUF
28Shots on goal33
2.52Expected goals2.63
66Shot attempts52
205v5 shots on goal26
1/4Power play1/3
28Hits29
11Blocked shots19
6Penalty minutes8
11Giveaways14
8Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 2.52 xGBUF 2.63 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:45 | 3:52 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:08 | 3:53 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:06 | 3:55 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 3:26 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:04 | 2:42 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:31 | 2:16 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 4 | 14:49 | 2:16 |
| A. Kaliyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:30 | 2:16 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:20 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:34 | 3:52 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:41 | 2:17 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:11 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 16 | 11 | 5 | .688 | 18:21 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 17 | 14 | 3 | .824 | 41:39 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:16 | 2:14 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:47 | 2:19 |
| R. McLeod | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:05 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:37 | 2:15 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:31 | 2:07 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:40 | 2:16 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 14:02 | 2:14 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:34 | 2:11 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 2:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 11:50 | 0:04 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:42 | 2:09 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 20:46 | 2:14 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 16:52 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:16 | 0:17 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.1, BUF 2.9 | NYR 2, BUF 8 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 28.5, BUF 29.6 | NYR 28, BUF 33 |
| Win chance | NYR 53% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 4 | 0.91 | 3 | 36% | 2 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.0 | 3 | 1.14 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.6 | 2 | 0.70 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.6 | 3 | 0.85 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.4 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.4 | 3 | 0.72 | 3 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 5 | 0.70 | 4 | 13% | 2 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.4 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.3 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.2 | 5 | 0.61 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.1 | 0 | 0.94 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| NYR A. Kaliyev | 1.8 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.8 | 2 | 0.84 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.5 | 2 | 0.54 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.5 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 0 | 0.13 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.