Game Recap: NYR 3, CBJ 6, March 19, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR3

FinalThu, Mar 19, 2026Every game that night

CBJ6

CBJ beat NYR 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.23 expected goals to 2.43. CBJ outshot NYR 37 to 25. Z. Werenski led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). A. Fantilli had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Greaves stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	1	1	3
CBJ	2	2	2	6

1st 5:41NYRV. TrocheckSH0.18 xG
1st 14:33CBJI. Lundestrom0.10 xG
1st 19:01CBJC. Garland0.11 xG
2nd 4:44NYRM. Zibanejad0.03 xG
2nd 7:04CBJB. Jenner0.16 xG
2nd 15:25CBJA. FantilliPP0.06 xG
3rd 0:50NYRA. LafrenièrePP0.14 xG
3rd 6:12CBJD. Severson0.06 xG
3rd 17:06CBJA. FantilliEN0.62 xG

Team Stats

NYRCBJ

25Shots on goal37

2.43Expected goals4.23

45Shot attempts59

205v5 shots on goal21

1/6Power play1/5

21Hits11

12Blocked shots8

8Penalty minutes12

18Giveaways11

5Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.43 xGCBJ 4.23 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR24 on goal, 3 scored

CBJ35 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	-1	0	23:40	6:30
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	21:51	6:50
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	21:33	6:49
G. Perreault	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	19:20	2:30
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	0	18:37	6:10
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	13:54	1:58
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	3	5	0	-1	0	13:43	2:10
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:45	1:47
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	2	11:27	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	8:21	0:00
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	7:23	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:01	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	2	22:29	6:37
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	24:57	2:26
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	21:53	1:04
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	15:21	0:14
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:35	0:00
C. Mackey	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	2	13:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	36	31	5	.861	59:44	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Fantilli	C	2	0	2	9	1	0	0	2	17:43	5:49
B. Jenner	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	2	15:54	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	17:52	5:50
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	2	15:40	0:11
I. Lundestrom	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	15:15	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+3	0	13:15	1:17
D. Heinen	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	10:03	0:00
C. Garland	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	7:12	1:17
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	23:17	5:50
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:05	5:39
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	14:59	0:00
K. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	8:50	1:17
Z. Werenski	D	0	3	3	5	0	0	+2	0	24:09	5:50
D. Severson	D	1	0	1	4	0	1	+2	0	24:22	1:17
I. Provorov	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	20:03	1:18
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	2	17:35	0:00
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	16:27	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	11:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	25	22	3	.880	59:01	Win
E. Merzlikins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1A. Lafrenière14:20G. Perreault15:52M. Zibanejad14:03

Line 2T. Raddysh9:53W. Cuylle11:25V. Trocheck10:39

Line 3C. Sheary9:55T. Kartye9:01J. Miller8:27

Line 4A. Edstrom8:19J. Chmelar7:23J. Brodzinski6:01

Pair 1V. Gavrikov17:52A. Fox15:10

Pair 2B. Schneider15:04M. Robertson11:29

Pair 3W. Borgen11:16C. Mackey13:26

CBJ

Line 1M. Olivier14:04C. Sillinger12:49C. Coyle12:14

Line 2A. Fantilli11:38K. Marchenko10:59M. Marchment10:26

Line 3B. Jenner12:20I. Lundestrom9:58D. Heinen10:03

Line 4S. Monahan7:45K. Johnson7:31C. Garland5:55

Pair 1D. Severson19:08Z. Werenski16:02

Pair 2E. Gudbranson12:23D. Fabbro13:46

Pair 3I. Provorov12:05D. Mateychuk10:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.7, CBJ 3.6	NYR 3, CBJ 6
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	NYR 23.7, CBJ 32.0	NYR 25, CBJ 37
Win chance	CBJ 64%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	5	0.99	3	19%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.9	3	0.96	1	33%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	9	0.86	2	30%	2
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	3	0.81	2	27%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	1	0.67	2	25%	1
CBJ M. Marchment	2.1	2	0.79	0	28%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.0	2	0.87	0	27%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	2.0	1	0.82	0	24%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	1.9	2	0.74	1	24%	1
CBJ B. Jenner	1.9	4	0.50	2	21%	1
NYR A. Fox	1.8	1	0.82	1	15%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.8	1	0.64	1	20%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	3	0.43	0	19%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	1	0.38	1	8%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.6	1	0.45	1	17%	1
NYR G. Perreault	1.6	1	0.50	1	17%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.6	2	0.43	1	13%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.6	0	0.49	0	17%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.36	0	10%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	2	0.41	0	17%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.4	4	0.43	1	9%	1
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.26	0	7%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.3	3	0.25	0	7%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.2	0	0.26	0	7%	0
NYR C. Mackey	1.2	0	0.23	0	8%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.2	1	0.29	0	12%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.2	0	0.27	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.2	0	0.38	0	10%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.1	1	0.33	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.1	0	0.34	1	14%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	1	0.21	0	6%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	0	0.22	0	4%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	1.0	2	0.22	1	9%	1
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	2	0.18	0	10%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.8	1	0.24	0	10%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.7	1	0.16	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.