Game Recap: NYR 0, CBJ 1 (OT), October 17, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR0

Final/OTSat, Oct 17, 2026Every game that night

CBJ1

CBJ beat NYR 1-0 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.81 expected goals to 3.43. G. Perreault had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Greaves stopped 29 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYR	0	0	0	0	0
CBJ	0	0	0	1	1

OT 3:26CBJK. Johnson0.05 xG

Team Stats

NYRCBJ

29Shots on goal29

3.43Expected goals2.81

65Shot attempts57

255v5 shots on goal22

0/3Power play0/3

16Hits22

12Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways18

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.43 xGCBJ 2.81 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR31 on goal, 0 scored

CBJ29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	0	0	0	24:43	4:30
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	2	0	0	22:52	4:25
J. Miller	C	1	3	0	0	0	21:33	4:22
P. Dorofeyev	RW	2	0	0	0	0	20:12	4:29
G. Perreault	RW	6	0	3	-1	0	18:37	1:39
T. Kartye	LW	2	1	0	0	0	16:17	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	2	3	0	0	2	14:57	1:36
N. Laba	C	1	2	1	-1	0	14:02	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	2	2	1	0	0	11:04	1:32
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	0	0	0	8:43	1:27
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	1	0	0	7:23	0:00
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	0	6:26	0:00
A. Fox	D	2	0	0	0	0	24:07	4:17
V. Gavrikov	D	3	1	1	0	2	21:49	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	1	2	1	0	0	20:41	0:00
S. Durzi	D	1	0	1	-1	2	20:13	1:43
B. Schneider	D	3	1	0	0	0	19:19	0:00
A. Smits	D	1	0	1	-1	0	14:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Garand	29	28	1	.966	63:26	OT loss
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	21:24	3:47
K. Johnson	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	20:55	3:36
A. Fantilli	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	0	2	23:31	3:40
M. Knies	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	21:11	2:33
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:40	2:20
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	17:44	2:29
M. Olivier	RW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	16:41	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	15:18	2:01
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:24	2:04
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:36	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	5:54	0:00
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	5:54	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	1	1	1	2	4	+1	0	32:18	3:56
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	26:38	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	25:15	2:06
E. Gudbranson	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	+1	0	18:08	0:01
J. Christiansen	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	13:33	0:00
E. Andrae	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	5:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Greaves	29	29	0	1.000	62:43	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1A. Lafrenière17:07G. Perreault16:52M. Zibanejad16:31

Line 2J. Miller14:32P. Dorofeyev15:04T. Kartye14:39

Line 3N. Laba11:18W. Cuylle10:30E. Tolvanen8:32

Line 4J. Dowling6:26O. Bjorkstrand7:16T. Raddysh7:23

Pair 1V. Gavrikov19:24A. Fox17:49

Pair 2M. Pettersson16:07S. Durzi15:54

Pair 3A. Smits13:53B. Schneider14:23

CBJ

Line 1M. Knies17:26A. Fantilli18:04K. Johnson17:15

Line 2C. Coyle13:54M. Olivier13:12C. Sillinger12:34

Line 3S. Monahan12:43V. Nichushkin12:03C. Garland11:20

Line 4R. Lomberg5:54L. Belluz5:54D. Heinen5:30

Pair 1Z. Werenski23:32D. Severson22:02

Pair 2D. Mateychuk19:37J. Christiansen12:43

Pair 3E. Gudbranson14:34E. Andrae5:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.5	+115	-135	1	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.5	+140	-165	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	+102	-120	1	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.5	-115	+105	2	Under
NYR A. Fox	1.5	+106	-120	2	Over
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	-125	+118	1	Under
CBJ C. Garland	1.5	+100	-120	2	Over
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.5	+115	-130	2	Over
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	+110	-125	6	Over
NYR J. Miller	1.5	-150	+125	1	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	-145	+135	4	Over
CBJ M. Olivier	1.5	+100	-110	3	Over
CBJ S. Monahan	1.5	-105	-118	1	Under
NYR T. Kartye	1.5	+125	-185	2	Over
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.5	-155	+130	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	1.5	-120	+105	2	Over

1 of 31 overs hit (3%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+700	-1000	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+2500	-3500	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+270	-370	0	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+430	-650	0	Under
CBJ C. Sillinger	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
CBJ D. Heinen	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+700	-1600	0	Under
CBJ D. Severson	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
CBJ E. Gudbranson	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+525	-650	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+290	-440	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+320	-400	1	Over
CBJ L. Belluz	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+480	-650	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+2800	-10000	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+200	-270	0	Under
CBJ R. Lomberg	0.5	+650	-1400	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+340	-475	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+575	-1200	0	Under
NYR T. Raddysh	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+1600	-2000	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+320	-400	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+350	-450	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+330	-550	0	Under

2 of 17 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-105	-115	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+190	-235	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+186	-210	1	Over
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+230	-295	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+210	-300	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+300	-550	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+275	-375	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+190	-200	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+126	-155	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+230	-310	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+255	-350	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+250	-295	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+240	-270	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+350	-700	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-140	+110	1	Over

3 of 18 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-132	+105	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	-135	+115	0	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	-113	-105	1	Over
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+135	-150	0	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+165	-220	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	-135	+130	0	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	-104	+100	1	Over
CBJ M. Olivier	0.5	+210	-300	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	-145	+125	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	-115	-110	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+196	-250	0	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+125	-145	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+115	-130	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	-200	+170	1	Over

0 of 15 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+280	-300	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+260	-375	Under
CBJ C. Coyle	0.5	+300	-450	Under
CBJ C. Garland	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
CBJ D. Mateychuk	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+225	-290	Under
CBJ K. Johnson	0.5	+290	-450	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+225	-275	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+290	-375	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CBJ S. Monahan	0.5	+390	-1000	Under
CBJ V. Nichushkin	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
CBJ Z. Werenski	0.5	+210	-225	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NYR D. Garand	25.5	-105	-125	28	Over
CBJ J. Greaves	22.5	-105	-114	29	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayMatthew Knies CBJ Turns 24 that day2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.7, CBJ 3.1	NYR 0, CBJ 1
Total goals	5.8	1
Shots on goal	NYR 23.6, CBJ 28.7	NYR 29, CBJ 29
Win chance	CBJ 56%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.6	1	0.99	1	20%	0
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.7	2	0.64	0	30%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.7	5	0.83	0	31%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	1	0.90	0	29%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	0	0.73	0	26%	0
NYR J. Miller	1.9	1	0.86	0	26%	0
CBJ V. Nichushkin	1.9	0	0.62	0	25%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	2	0.45	0	20%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.8	1	0.72	1	23%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.8	4	0.56	1	20%	1
CBJ M. Knies	1.7	2	0.78	0	27%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	1.7	1	0.59	0	21%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.7	1	0.44	0	15%	0
CBJ C. Garland	1.6	2	0.44	0	17%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.6	2	0.81	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.5	0	0.47	0	10%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	6	0.50	0	20%	0
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.4	2	0.35	0	16%	0
CBJ M. Olivier	1.4	3	0.36	0	16%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.3	3	0.35	0	10%	0
NYR S. Durzi	1.3	1	0.41	0	10%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	3	0.34	0	9%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.2	2	0.42	0	16%	0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.2	1	0.30	0	13%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	3	0.21	0	5%	0
CBJ D. Heinen	1.1	0	0.33	0	14%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	1	0.32	0	13%	0
CBJ E. Gudbranson	1.0	4	0.20	0	4%	0
CBJ R. Lomberg	1.0	2	0.17	0	8%	0
CBJ J. Christiansen	0.9	0	0.12	0	2%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	0.9	0	0.24	0	8%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.8	0	0.25	0	10%	0
NYR M. Pettersson	0.8	1	0.28	0	5%	0
NYR A. Smits	0.7	1	0.12	0	4%	0
NYR J. Dowling	0.6	0	0.13	0	6%	0
CBJ E. Andrae	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.