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Game Recap
NYR2
COL3
COL beat NYR 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.06 expected goals to 3.71. S. Carrick led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Blackwood stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| COL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 4:53COLP. Kelly0.10 xG
- 1st 11:55NYRS. CarrickSH0.21 xG
- 2nd 9:59NYRA. Edstrom0.20 xG
- 3rd 18:47COLA. Lehkonen0.39 xG
- OT 4:23COLD. Toews0.20 xG
Team Stats
NYRCOL
29Shots on goal26
3.71Expected goals3.06
57Shot attempts66
155v5 shots on goal19
0/3Power play0/3
12Hits17
22Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways14
11Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 3.71 xGCOL 3.06 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Carrick | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:01 | 4:40 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:26 | 4:56 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:23 | 2:57 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:05 | 2:41 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:00 | 3:03 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:46 | 1:20 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:58 | 1:18 |
| A. Kaliyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:50 | 1:04 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:31 | 4:42 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22:59 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:49 | 1:19 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 64:16 | OT loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:07 | 4:11 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:41 | 4:09 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:27 | 4:46 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:08 | 1:49 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:53 | 4:21 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:55 | 1:37 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 1:15 |
| J. Innala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:12 | 0:16 |
| J. Polin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:04 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 30:49 | 2:11 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 28:13 | 3:52 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:20 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:08 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:47 | 1:13 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 63:15 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.0, COL 3.4 | NYR 2, COL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 27.8, COL 33.1 | NYR 29, COL 26 |
| Win chance | COL 57% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.3 | 4 | 1.53 | 2 | 39% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 3.1 | 4 | 1.30 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.0 | 2 | 1.11 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.7 | 4 | 1.09 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.5 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.5 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.5 | 4 | 0.64 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.4 | 1 | 0.74 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.2 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.1 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 2.0 | 3 | 0.62 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.9 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 1.9 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.8 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.6 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.5 | 0 | 0.63 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.3 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR A. Kaliyev | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 0.9 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL J. Polin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 0.9 | 2 | 0.05 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| COL J. Parssinen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.7 | 2 | 0.17 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.5 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL J. Innala | 0.5 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.