NYR beat DAL 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.98 expected goals to 4.56. DAL outshot NYR 42 to 30. V. Trocheck led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). W. Johnston had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. I. Shesterkin stopped 41 of 42.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| DAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 1:46DALR. Hintz0.24 xG
- 1st 10:44NYRR. SmithSH0.10 xG
- 1st 15:20NYRV. Trocheck0.09 xG
- 3rd 17:54NYRC. KreiderEN0.37 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 2.98 xGDAL 4.56 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 23:26 | 4:11 |
| R. Smith | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 | 1:16 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:25 | 3:55 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:48 | 4:11 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:15 | 1:49 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:27 | 3:38 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:24 | 2:23 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:55 | 2:04 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:46 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 27:15 | 5:01 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:24 | 0:59 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:00 | 0:18 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:15 |
| C. Ruhwedel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 42 | 41 | 1 | .976 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:05 | 11:45 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:23 | 8:07 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:03 | 10:46 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 10:02 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:20 | 7:44 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 1:36 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:53 | 6:10 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:06 | 6:52 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:03 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:35 | 2:13 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:03 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:18 | 2:11 |
| N. Lundkvist | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:59 | 2:13 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 24:06 | 9:37 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:09 | 5:17 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:14 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:07 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 57:48 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 2.8, DAL 3.3 | NYR 3, DAL 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 27.0, DAL 33.6 | NYR 30, DAL 42 |
| Win chance | DAL 59% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.8 | 9 | 0.74 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.6 | 3 | 0.99 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| DAL L. Stankoven | 2.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.4 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.2 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.2 | 6 | 0.67 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.2 | 5 | 0.75 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.1 | 5 | 0.68 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| DAL M. Marchment | 2.1 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.9 | 4 | 0.80 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 1.9 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.6 | 4 | 0.71 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.6 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.6 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.5 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL N. Lundkvist | 1.2 | 3 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.0 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR C. Ruhwedel | 0.7 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.5 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.