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Game Recap
NYR0
DAL2
DAL beat NYR 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.49 expected goals to 2.13. J. Robertson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Oettinger stopped 22 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 3rd 12:49DALJ. RobertsonPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 19:01DALJ. RobertsonEN0.55 xG
Team Stats
NYRDAL
22Shots on goal19
2.13Expected goals3.49
55Shot attempts43
145v5 shots on goal11
0/5Power play1/4
22Hits14
9Blocked shots19
15Penalty minutes17
13Giveaways12
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 2.13 xGDAL 3.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:22 | 6:25 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:58 | 6:15 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 18:41 | 6:20 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:53 | 4:05 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 5 | 16:52 | 3:28 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:10 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 1:34 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 1:35 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Chmelar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:01 |
| A. Sykora | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:01 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:35 | 1:13 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:35 | 6:25 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 2:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:01 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:01 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 18 | 17 | 1 | .944 | 59:32 | Loss |
| D. Garand | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:58 | 5:42 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:34 | 5:47 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:10 | 1:14 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 | 4:55 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 5:47 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:22 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:43 | 0:05 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Hyry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| A. Erne | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:05 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10:31 | 0:17 |
| C. Hughes | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:26 | 0:00 |
| T. Harley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 26:26 | 5:47 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:57 | 0:22 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 20:56 | 0:22 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 22 | 22 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYR
Line 1A. Lafrenière13:37G. Perreault12:20M. Zibanejad12:07
Line 2N. Laba12:47J. Chmelar11:11A. Sykora10:21
Line 4J. Brodzinski8:22W. Cuylle10:23V. Trocheck11:27
Pair 1V. Gavrikov15:46A. Fox17:47
Pair 2U. Vaakanainen14:49B. Schneider17:12
Pair 3W. Borgen11:35M. Robertson11:41
DAL
Line 1J. Robertson14:48M. Bourque16:55M. Duchene12:17
Line 2M. Rantanen12:37W. Johnston13:38J. Benn10:13
Line 3A. Erne10:24A. Hyry8:37C. Blackwell9:10
Line 4O. Bäck7:55J. Hryckowian11:02
Pair 2E. Lindell15:52I. Lyubushkin14:12
Pair 3A. Petrovic12:41L. Bichsel13:10
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 2.6, DAL 3.2 | NYR 0, DAL 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 22.9, DAL 27.0 | NYR 22, DAL 19 |
| Win chance | DAL 60% | DAL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.5 | 2 | 1.19 | 2 | 39% | 2 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.5 | 2 | 0.95 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 1 | 1.17 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.2 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 2.0 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.9 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 1.8 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DAL T. Harley | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.7 | 4 | 0.81 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 1.6 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.5 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.4 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DAL A. Hyry | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR G. Perreault | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.2 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL T. Myers | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR A. Sykora | 1.1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR C. Sheary | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR T. Kartye | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR J. Chmelar | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL A. Erne | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.