Game Recap: NYR 3, FLA 5, December 30, 2024

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Game Recap

NYR3

FinalMon, Dec 30, 2024Every game that night

FLA5

FLA beat NYR 5-3, with the chances close: 3.30 expected goals to 3.68. NYR outshot FLA 35 to 26. J. Boqvist led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). F. Chytil had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. S. Bobrovsky stopped 32 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	0	2	1	3
FLA	2	1	2	5

1st 3:04FLAE. Luostarinen0.02 xG
1st 5:21FLAM. Samoskevich0.14 xG
2nd 14:25NYRF. Chytil0.50 xG
2nd 16:17NYRR. Lindgren0.08 xG
2nd 16:55FLAJ. Boqvist0.24 xG
3rd 5:19NYRC. KreiderPP0.16 xG
3rd 11:38FLAJ. Boqvist0.03 xG
3rd 19:23FLAA. BarkovEN0.80 xG

Team Stats

NYRFLA

35Shots on goal26

3.68Expected goals3.30

71Shot attempts61

225v5 shots on goal19

1/5Power play0/4

22Hits23

21Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes10

14Giveaways15

7Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.68 xGFLA 3.30 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR33 on goal, 3 scored

FLA25 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	3	3	1	0	0	22:57	6:51
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	21:14	6:32
C. Kreider	LW	1	0	1	3	4	0	-2	0	19:58	6:12
F. Chytil	C	1	0	1	7	0	0	-2	0	14:52	1:40
B. Berard	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-3	2	9:58	0:09
S. Carrick	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	9:17	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	4	20:16	6:40
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:50	1:40
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:25	3:07
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	5	3	2	-2	0	16:01	2:03
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:25	0:12
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:05	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	1	2	4	+1	0	26:33	6:48
R. Lindgren	D	1	0	1	1	1	3	0	2	17:27	0:09
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0	21:54	1:35
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	19:08	0:13
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	14:30	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	25	21	4	.840	57:51	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Boqvist	C	2	0	2	4	3	0	+1	0	12:03	0:00
A. Barkov	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	2	22:29	5:08
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	18:20	2:44
E. Luostarinen	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	12:00	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	9:08	2:31
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	23:14	5:09
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:17	2:51
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	2	16:46	5:11
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	16:26	4:46
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	13:50	2:52
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	8:27	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	7:04	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+1	0	15:25	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	2	3	5	+2	0	26:09	0:48
D. Kulikov	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	19:32	0:28
A. Boqvist	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	12:37	2:48
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+2	2	25:55	4:44
N. Schmidt	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	35	32	3	.914	60:00	Win
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayIgor Shesterkin NYR Turns 29 that day21 saves on 25

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.9, FLA 3.4	NYR 3, FLA 5
Total goals	6.4	8
Shots on goal	NYR 26.8, FLA 34.5	NYR 35, FLA 26
Win chance	FLA 58%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.8	1	0.97	0	28%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.8	2	0.80	0	30%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.6	1	0.98	0	38%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	3	0.65	0	25%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.5	1	1.01	1	30%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.5	3	1.07	1	29%	1
FLA G. Forsling	2.2	2	0.43	1	10%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.2	3	0.60	1	32%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.1	3	0.74	1	25%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	4	0.59	0	24%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	1	0.48	0	18%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.9	1	0.56	1	17%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.9	0	0.46	0	10%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	1.9	1	0.67	0	23%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.8	1	0.80	1	11%	0
NYR F. Chytil	1.7	7	0.42	1	17%	1
NYR R. Smith	1.5	1	0.47	0	18%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.5	5	0.41	0	18%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.4	1	0.23	1	12%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.3	3	0.31	1	14%	1
FLA U. Balinskis	1.3	1	0.20	2	4%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.2	1	0.38	1	14%	1
NYR K. Miller	1.1	1	0.29	0	7%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	2	0.21	0	5%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.0	0	0.22	1	4%	0
FLA A. Boqvist	1.0	2	0.27	1	7%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	4	0.32	2	13%	2
FLA N. Schmidt	0.9	0	0.23	0	5%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.9	1	0.20	0	6%	0
NYR J. Vesey	0.9	0	0.21	0	10%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.8	1	0.21	1	4%	1
NYR S. Carrick	0.8	1	0.17	1	9%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	2	0.15	0	2%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.7	0	0.15	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.