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Game Recap
NYR5
FLA3
NYR beat FLA 5-3, with the chances close: 2.35 expected goals to 2.80. S. Reinhart led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Quick stopped 27 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| FLA | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 2:22FLAS. ReinhartPP0.11 xG
- 1st 8:43NYRM. Rempe0.21 xG
- 2nd 4:32FLAC. Verhaeghe0.08 xG
- 2nd 13:54FLAS. Reinhart0.24 xG
- 2nd 15:55NYRJ. Parssinen0.09 xG
- 2nd 17:33NYRJ. Miller0.21 xG
- 3rd 3:40NYRV. TrocheckSH0.08 xG
- 3rd 16:31NYRJ. Brodzinski0.24 xG
Team Stats
NYRFLA
25Shots on goal30
2.35Expected goals2.80
49Shot attempts64
215v5 shots on goal29
0/2Power play1/2
9Hits31
16Blocked shots17
4Penalty minutes4
10Giveaways17
7Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 2.35 xGFLA 2.80 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Miller | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:17 | 2:35 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:00 | 1:26 |
| M. Rempe | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 | 2:10 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:01 | 2:34 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 1:24 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:26 | 2:36 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:25 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:18 | 1:50 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:18 | 2:09 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 1:51 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quick | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 60:00 | Win |
| I. Shesterkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:00 | 1:29 |
| A. Barkov | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:48 | 1:28 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:51 | 1:40 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:24 | 1:40 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:52 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:51 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:24 |
| J. Gadjovich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:22 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:12 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| R. Asplund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:42 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:49 | 1:26 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 21:15 | 0:52 |
| N. Schmidt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 20:38 | 1:17 |
| D. Kulikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 0:24 |
| J. Megna | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 0:00 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 25 | 20 | 5 | .800 | 60:00 | Loss |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 2.8, FLA 3.3 | NYR 5, FLA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 24.8, FLA 33.3 | NYR 25, FLA 30 |
| Win chance | FLA 59% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.4 | 3 | 0.75 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 3.0 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.7 | 4 | 0.95 | 2 | 37% | 2 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.6 | 0 | 0.92 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA A. Barkov | 2.3 | 2 | 1.01 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 2.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.2 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.1 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.1 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| FLA J. Puljujarvi | 1.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 1.9 | 1 | 0.83 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.8 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.6 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Gadjovich | 1.2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA N. Sturm | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA N. Schmidt | 1.1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 1.0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA R. Asplund | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA D. Kulikov | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| FLA J. Megna | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR J. Parssinen | 0.6 | 2 | 0.21 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.