Game Recap: NYR 4, MTL 5 (OT), January 19, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR4

Final/OTSun, Jan 19, 2025Every game that night

MTL5

MTL beat NYR 5-4 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.04 expected goals to 3.31. MTL outshot NYR 37 to 28. B. Gallagher led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Suzuki had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Dobes stopped 24 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYR	2	2	0	0	4
MTL	1	2	1	1	5

1st 11:17NYRA. Lafrenière0.20 xG
1st 13:52MTLB. Gallagher0.07 xG
1st 14:38NYRW. Cuylle0.19 xG
2nd 5:07MTLC. Dvorak0.13 xG
2nd 10:24NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.04 xG
2nd 15:05MTLN. Suzuki0.16 xG
2nd 16:20NYRC. Kreider0.09 xG
3rd 12:52MTLJ. Slafkovský0.46 xG
OT 3:20MTLP. Laine0.21 xG

Team Stats

NYRMTL

28Shots on goal37

3.31Expected goals5.04

56Shot attempts67

185v5 shots on goal30

1/2Power play0/3

17Hits16

14Blocked shots11

17Penalty minutes15

15Giveaways24

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.31 xGMTL 5.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR26 on goal, 4 scored

MTL37 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Kreider	LW	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	0	19:07	2:15
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	17:19	0:27
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:05	2:15
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	16:58	2:15
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	4	3	2	0	0	16:57	0:27
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	17:51	2:15
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	17:33	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:02	0:27
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:12	0:00
A. Kaliyev	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:50	0:27
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:50	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	7	7:18	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	2	22:55	2:15
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	-2	0	23:06	0:27
R. Lindgren	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	22:37	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	20:09	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	18:14	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	13:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	37	32	5	.865	63:20	OT loss
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dvorak	C	1	1	2	3	0	2	+2	0	15:40	1:25
B. Gallagher	RW	1	1	2	5	2	0	+2	2	12:08	1:06
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	6	0	1	+1	0	22:29	4:52
P. Laine	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:41	4:54
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:47	4:35
A. Newhook	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	18:33	1:08
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	18:15	4:44
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	4	13:23	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:04	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:51	1:16
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:04	0:00
O. Beck	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:13	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	25:10	4:39
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	4	23:02	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	26:01	1:21
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+3	0	19:48	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:10	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	5	10:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	28	24	4	.857	63:20	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamChris Kreider MTL Faces NYR, his team until Apr 20251 G, 5 SOG
HometownAlexis Lafrenière NYR Plays near home (born in St-Eustache)1 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.2, MTL 3.0	NYR 4, MTL 5
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	NYR 29.1, MTL 29.3	NYR 28, MTL 37
Win chance	NYR 53%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.4	2	0.79	1	32%	0
NYR A. Panarin	3.0	3	1.18	1	35%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.6	2	0.84	0	29%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.6	1	0.66	1	27%	1
MTL P. Laine	2.5	3	0.70	1	28%	1
NYR C. Kreider	2.4	5	0.67	1	36%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	1	0.80	1	28%	1
MTL M. Matheson	2.1	2	0.61	0	10%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	6	0.84	1	25%	1
NYR F. Chytil	2.0	1	0.46	0	19%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.9	0	0.56	0	22%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	4	0.43	1	20%	1
MTL B. Gallagher	1.8	5	0.37	2	16%	1
MTL J. Armia	1.8	2	0.41	0	17%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	1	0.85	2	12%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.7	1	0.44	0	16%	0
NYR A. Kaliyev	1.5	1	0.27	0	13%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	1	0.33	1	17%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.5	1	0.53	1	17%	1
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	4	0.41	1	18%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.3	3	0.36	2	13%	1
NYR K. Miller	1.3	2	0.33	1	8%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.3	4	0.31	1	7%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	1	0.25	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.2	2	0.29	0	13%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.1	1	0.32	0	4%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	2	0.69	1	5%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.41	1	13%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	2	0.24	0	5%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.0	0	0.15	0	4%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	0	0.20	0	12%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.27	1	5%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	2	0.17	0	2%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.7	0	0.25	0	4%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.5	0	0.12	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.