Game Recap: NYR 0, NJD 5, December 23, 2024

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Game Recap

NYR0

FinalMon, Dec 23, 2024Every game that night

NJD5

NJD beat NYR 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.02 expected goals to 2.11. NJD outshot NYR 30 to 12. J. Hughes led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Mercer had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Markstrom stopped 12 of 12.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	0	0	0	0
NJD	1	2	2	5

1st 4:29NJDJ. Hughes0.04 xG
2nd 4:41NJDT. MeierPP0.17 xG
2nd 11:13NJDJ. HughesPP0.10 xG
3rd 8:00NJDS. Noesen0.15 xG
3rd 12:35NJDD. MercerPP0.24 xG

Team Stats

NYRNJD

12Shots on goal30

2.11Expected goals4.02

45Shot attempts57

65v5 shots on goal18

0/4Power play3/4

26Hits16

8Blocked shots13

20Penalty minutes22

18Giveaways16

1Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.11 xGNJD 4.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR10 on goal, 0 scored

NJD30 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	2	2	-1	4	19:44	4:41
A. Panarin	LW	1	0	0	-1	4	19:06	4:47
V. Trocheck	C	0	2	0	-1	5	18:00	4:38
F. Chytil	C	2	1	0	0	0	16:45	2:36
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	0	0	0	15:58	5:32
M. Zibanejad	C	0	2	0	0	0	15:17	3:07
R. Smith	RW	0	2	1	0	0	14:08	2:13
J. Vesey	LW	2	0	1	-1	0	13:43	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	1	0	-1	5	12:34	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	1	2	0	-1	0	12:29	2:22
B. Berard	LW	0	2	0	0	2	12:05	0:49
J. Brodzinski	C	0	2	0	0	0	11:16	1:14
A. Fox	D	3	1	0	-1	0	26:09	6:07
R. Lindgren	D	1	2	1	-1	0	20:09	0:00
Z. Jones	D	1	1	1	0	0	18:24	1:54
W. Borgen	D	0	2	2	-1	0	17:01	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	-1	0	16:58	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	3	0	0	0	12:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	30	25	5	.833	59:48	Loss
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

NJD Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Hughes	C	2	1	3	3	0	0	+1	0	19:11	2:54
D. Mercer	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	2	16:06	2:25
J. Bratt	LW	0	2	2	2	3	1	+1	0	15:42	1:57
T. Meier	RW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	2	12:55	1:12
N. Hischier	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	16:34	2:27
S. Noesen	RW	1	0	1	4	1	2	+1	2	14:54	1:38
O. Palat	LW	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	0	10:22	0:49
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	14:13	1:17
T. Tatar	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:36	1:15
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:34	0:49
J. Dowling	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:27	1:11
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	13:09	1:52
L. Hughes	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	20:11	4:01
D. Hamilton	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	17:51	1:38
J. Kovacevic	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	21:05	0:00
J. Siegenthaler	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	20:58	0:00
B. Pesce	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	19:37	1:24
B. Dillon	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	5	16:47	0:36

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	12	12	0	1.000	60:00	Win
J. Allen	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.9, NJD 3.5	NYR 0, NJD 5
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	NYR 25.9, NJD 34.1	NYR 12, NJD 30
Win chance	NJD 60%	NJD won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NJD J. Hughes	3.9	3	1.16	3	36%	2
NJD T. Meier	3.2	2	0.76	2	32%	1
NJD N. Hischier	2.8	2	0.96	1	31%	0
NJD J. Bratt	2.6	2	1.01	2	29%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.5	1	0.98	0	30%	0
NJD D. Hamilton	2.5	1	0.58	1	12%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	0	0.72	0	25%	0
NJD S. Noesen	2.2	4	0.63	1	25%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	1	0.57	0	24%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	1.9	0	0.67	0	24%	0
NJD E. Haula	1.8	0	0.39	0	16%	0
NYR F. Chytil	1.7	2	0.40	0	17%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.6	3	0.79	0	11%	0
NJD D. Mercer	1.6	5	0.49	2	22%	1
NJD L. Hughes	1.6	2	0.51	2	8%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.6	0	0.42	0	19%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.5	0	0.47	0	18%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.5	0	0.25	0	13%	0
NJD B. Pesce	1.5	1	0.25	0	5%	0
NJD O. Palat	1.4	1	0.45	1	17%	0
NJD P. Cotter	1.4	0	0.36	0	16%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	0	0.22	0	9%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	0	0.23	0	5%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.1	1	0.26	0	5%	0
NJD N. Bastian	1.0	3	0.24	0	10%	0
NJD J. Kovacevic	1.0	2	0.25	0	5%	0
NJD J. Siegenthaler	1.0	0	0.18	0	3%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	0	0.19	0	10%	0
NJD T. Tatar	0.9	2	0.27	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
NYR J. Vesey	0.8	2	0.19	0	9%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.8	1	0.20	0	4%	0
NJD B. Dillon	0.8	0	0.26	0	5%	0
NJD J. Dowling	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	1	0.14	0	9%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.