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Game Recap
NYR0
FinalSat, Apr 5, 2025Every game that night
NJD4

NJD beat NYR 4-0, with the chances close: 3.19 expected goals to 2.57. NYR outshot NJD 26 to 16. N. Hischier led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Markstrom stopped 26 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NYR0000
NJD0224
  1. 2nd 10:56NJDT. MeierPP0.15 xG
  2. 2nd 12:23NJDJ. BrattSH0.18 xG
  3. 3rd 14:59NJDT. Meier0.16 xG
  4. 3rd 16:12NJDN. HischierEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

NYRNJD
26Shots on goal16
2.57Expected goals3.19
57Shot attempts43
165v5 shots on goal12
0/2Power play1/2
24Hits21
11Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways19
5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.57 xGNJD 3.19 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdNJD goal, 10:56NJD goal, 12:23NJD goal, 14:59NJD goal, 16:12

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR26 on goal, 0 scored
NJD16 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. PanarinLW000200-2020:272:16
V. TrocheckC000021-2219:061:48
J. MillerC000240-2019:032:26
A. LafrenièreLW000350-1016:201:44
M. ZibanejadC000210-1016:112:17
J. BrodzinskiC000300-1016:001:38
W. CuylleLW0002010015:541:26
G. PerreaultRW0001000013:481:26
B. OthmannLW0001410013:080:00
S. CarrickC0002210212:190:00
C. KreiderLW000111-2010:580:42
B. BerardLW0001200010:000:00
K. MillerD000222-1023:212:14
A. FoxD000300-2020:271:46
B. SchneiderD0000020019:090:00
U. VaakanainenD0001010018:540:00
C. SoucyD000011-1017:370:00
W. BorgenD000000-1216:180:17
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Shesterkin15123.80058:56Loss
J. Quick000–0:00

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. HischierC123110+2017:161:21
J. BrattLW112300+2018:171:20
T. MeierRW202340+1216:361:21
D. MercerC011010+1217:281:18
E. HaulaLW000121+1017:230:00
S. NoesenRW000120+1016:310:46
O. PalatLW0002210014:040:43
D. SprongRW0000000012:300:44
J. DowlingC0000210212:250:00
T. TatarLW0000000012:190:43
C. GlassC0001100012:000:00
P. CotterLW0000310011:280:00
L. HughesD0113120022:161:28
B. DillonD011012+2017:080:00
S. CaseyD011010+1014:240:36
B. PesceD000002+2025:080:00
J. KovacevicD0001010019:590:00
B. DumoulinD000000+1018:530:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Markstrom262601.00059:55Win
J. Allen000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNYR 3.0, NJD 3.1NYR 0, NJD 4
Total goals6.14
Shots on goalNYR 26.1, NJD 29.2NYR 26, NJD 16
Win chanceNJD 51%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD T. Meier3.330.73232%2
NJD N. Hischier2.810.99333%1
NYR A. Panarin2.620.99031%0
NJD J. Bratt2.531.07227%1
NYR V. Trocheck2.200.71025%0
NJD S. Noesen2.110.55022%0
NYR M. Zibanejad2.120.71025%0
NYR C. Kreider2.010.52030%0
NYR J. Miller1.820.90027%0
NJD C. Glass1.810.43015%0
NJD D. Sprong1.800.43018%0
NJD D. Mercer1.800.46122%0
NJD L. Hughes1.830.6419%0
NYR A. Fox1.830.79013%0
NJD E. Haula1.710.37017%0
NYR A. Lafrenière1.630.50020%0
NYR W. Cuylle1.620.40019%0
NJD B. Pesce1.600.2706%0
NYR J. Brodzinski1.630.34015%0
NYR K. Miller1.420.3408%0
NJD O. Palat1.320.42017%0
NYR B. Schneider1.100.2406%0
NJD P. Cotter1.100.29015%0
NYR B. Berard1.110.20010%0
NJD T. Tatar1.100.33014%0
NYR B. Othmann1.010.1507%0
NYR W. Borgen1.000.2305%0
NYR S. Carrick1.020.22010%0
NYR C. Soucy1.000.1906%0
NJD J. Kovacevic0.910.2204%0
NYR U. Vaakanainen0.910.2303%0
NJD B. Dumoulin0.900.2604%0
NJD J. Dowling0.900.22010%0
NJD S. Casey0.800.3019%0
NJD B. Dillon0.700.2214%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.