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Game Recap
NYR1
FinalThu, Oct 15, 2026Every game that night
NJD7

NJD beat NYR 7-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.39 expected goals to 1.42. NJD outshot NYR 31 to 19. L. Hughes led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Hughes had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. N. Daws stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NYR0011
NJD1427
  1. 1st 19:30NJDE. Rodrigues0.04 xG
  2. 2nd 0:18NJDL. Hughes0.02 xG
  3. 2nd 4:08NJDN. Hischier0.24 xG
  4. 2nd 4:39NJDA. Gritsyuk0.13 xG
  5. 2nd 16:34NJDL. Hughes0.13 xG
  6. 3rd 7:01NJDS. Noesen0.10 xG
  7. 3rd 8:02NYRP. DorofeyevPP0.06 xG
  8. 3rd 14:54NJDC. GlassSH0.10 xG

Team Stats

NYRNJD
19Shots on goal31
1.42Expected goals3.39
41Shot attempts67
125v5 shots on goal26
1/4Power play0/4
25Hits15
23Blocked shots13
23Penalty minutes13
13Giveaways9
6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 1.42 xGNJD 3.39 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdNJD goal, 19:30NJD goal, 0:18NJD goal, 4:08NJD goal, 4:39NJD goal, 16:34NJD goal, 7:01NYR goal, 8:02NJD goal, 14:54

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR18 on goal, 1 scored
NJD29 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
P. DorofeyevRW101501-3018:584:10
A. LafrenièreLW011101-41016:113:57
M. ZibanejadC000032-3020:144:13
J. MillerC000001-4017:274:08
N. LabaC0000400216:370:10
W. CuylleLW000030-1516:072:18
G. PerreaultRW000110-1015:392:03
T. KartyeLW000151-3015:190:00
E. TolvanenRW0000110012:542:10
O. BjorkstrandRW000300-1012:042:06
J. ChmelarRW000040-108:350:00
J. DowlingC000011-107:410:00
A. FoxD011402-4018:173:47
S. DurziD000004-2023:092:24
M. PetterssonD000001-2619:020:10
V. GavrikovD000015-3019:010:00
B. SchneiderD000223-1017:580:15
A. SmitsD000200-1017:010:14
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Garand1394.69224:25Loss
S. Martin18153.83335:21

NJD Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
E. RodriguesC112201+2017:232:47
D. MercerC022302+3015:522:03
T. MeierRW022240+2214:301:37
A. LombardiC022200+3012:321:13
J. HughesC011300+1017:343:03
A. GritsyukRW101210+1016:562:00
C. GlassC101100+2014:471:13
N. HischierC101130+2014:122:37
S. NoesenRW101340+1010:460:07
J. BrattLW000000+1015:462:59
J. BoqvistC000100+1013:511:13
A. ManthaRW000100+1013:381:44
L. HughesD202521+3224:584:22
B. PesceD022203+3021:300:00
D. HamiltonD022102+4019:391:31
J. SiegenthalerD000003+3217:360:04
D. ChisholmD000010+1016:251:20
J. KovacevicD0002010716:000:07
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
N. Daws19181.94759:40Win
J. Allen000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad14:29P. Dorofeyev14:48G. Perreault13:36
Line 2T. Kartye13:41A. Lafrenière12:00J. Miller11:56
Line 3W. Cuylle11:16N. Laba13:33E. Tolvanen9:43
Line 4J. Dowling7:41O. Bjorkstrand9:38J. Chmelar8:15
Pair 1M. Pettersson18:32S. Durzi18:10
Pair 2V. Gavrikov14:57A. Fox13:44
Pair 3B. Schneider14:00A. Smits15:06

NJD

Line 1J. Hughes14:00J. Bratt12:37A. Gritsyuk14:19
Line 2A. Mantha11:45E. Rodrigues12:19S. Noesen10:22
Line 3T. Meier12:03D. Mercer10:47N. Hischier9:33
Line 4J. Boqvist11:40A. Lombardi10:29C. Glass10:29
Pair 1L. Hughes18:06B. Pesce17:17
Pair 2D. Hamilton15:03J. Siegenthaler14:57
Pair 3D. Chisholm14:50J. Kovacevic14:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 18 overs hit (33%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NJD J. Hughes3.5-105+1053Under
NJD D. Hamilton2.5+120-1351Under
NJD J. Bratt2.5+135-1800Under
NJD L. Hughes2.5+146-1655Over
NYR M. Zibanejad2.5+136-1550Under
NJD N. Hischier2.5+125-1401Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.5-105-1105Over
NJD T. Meier2.5-144+1352Under
NYR A. Fox1.5+120-1454Over
NJD A. Gritsyuk1.5-155+1402Over
NYR A. Lafrenière1.5-176+1401Under
NJD A. Mantha1.5+100-1251Under
NJD D. Mercer1.5-105-1103Over
NJD E. Rodrigues1.5-160+1302Over
NYR E. Tolvanen1.5+110-1400Under
NYR G. Perreault1.5+118–1Under
NYR J. Miller1.5-125+1150Under
NYR W. Cuylle1.5-125+1040Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNYR 2.9, NJD 3.0NYR 1, NJD 7
Total goals5.98
Shots on goalNYR 23.3, NJD 30.6NYR 19, NJD 31
Win chanceNJD 53%NJD won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NJD J. Hughes3.831.24137%0
NJD T. Meier3.120.60228%0
NJD D. Hamilton2.710.49212%0
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.750.68132%1
NJD A. Gritsyuk2.420.51120%1
NJD L. Hughes2.450.57210%2
NYR M. Zibanejad2.400.94031%0
NJD N. Hischier2.310.82130%1
NJD J. Bratt2.300.94026%0
NYR A. Lafrenière2.010.75127%0
NJD E. Rodrigues1.920.45217%1
NYR J. Miller1.800.89027%0
NYR W. Cuylle1.800.46020%0
NJD D. Mercer1.830.43221%0
NJD A. Lombardi1.620.2129%0
NYR G. Perreault1.510.53021%0
NYR A. Fox1.540.87113%0
NJD A. Mantha1.410.53021%0
NJD S. Noesen1.430.33115%1
NYR E. Tolvanen1.400.35016%0
NJD B. Pesce1.420.2425%0
NJD C. Glass1.310.31114%1
NYR T. Kartye1.210.46017%0
NYR V. Gavrikov1.200.3608%0
NYR S. Durzi1.200.4008%0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand1.130.29012%0
NJD J. Boqvist1.110.27013%0
NYR N. Laba1.000.33013%0
NYR B. Schneider1.020.2204%0
NJD J. Kovacevic0.920.2004%0
NJD D. Chisholm0.800.1603%0
NJD J. Siegenthaler0.800.1903%0
NYR M. Pettersson0.800.2904%0
NYR J. Chmelar0.800.1708%0
NYR J. Dowling0.700.1407%0
NYR A. Smits0.520.1203%0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.