Game Recap: NYR 5, NYI 1, February 25, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR5

FinalTue, Feb 25, 2025Every game that night

NYI1

NYR beat NYI 5-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.75 expected goals to 3.12. NYI outshot NYR 37 to 18. J. Brodzinski led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Boqvist had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. I. Shesterkin stopped 36 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	3	2	0	5
NYI	1	0	0	1

1st 6:22NYRU. Vaakanainen0.04 xG
1st 8:19NYIA. Romanov0.02 xG
1st 12:39NYRJ. Brodzinski0.07 xG
1st 19:12NYRJ. Brodzinski0.02 xG
2nd 11:21NYRJ. Miller0.13 xG
2nd 16:30NYRM. Rempe0.07 xG

Team Stats

NYRNYI

18Shots on goal37

1.75Expected goals3.12

46Shot attempts82

175v5 shots on goal34

0/1Power play0/1

47Hits33

19Blocked shots12

2Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways8

7Takeaways0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 1.75 xGNYI 3.12 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR18 on goal, 5 scored

NYI37 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Brodzinski	C	2	1	3	2	3	0	+3	0	13:14	0:39
R. Smith	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	17:00	0:22
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	16:03	1:21
J. Miller	C	1	0	1	1	5	0	+1	0	15:47	1:35
M. Rempe	C	1	0	1	1	6	0	+3	0	11:30	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	18:19	1:36
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:05	1:38
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	15:57	0:25
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	14:35	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	+1	0	14:18	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	5	2	+1	0	14:13	0:24
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+3	0	12:02	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	1	2	3	1	1	0	+2	0	20:57	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	2	2	0	2	1	+2	0	24:13	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	2	5	5	+2	0	23:37	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	0	2	17:48	1:35
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	+2	0	21:09	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:13	0:25

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	37	36	1	.973	60:00	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	17:45	0:24
B. Horvat	C	0	0	0	5	5	0	0	0	18:03	1:36
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	17:09	1:39
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	16:48	0:23
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:25	0:21
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-2	0	15:43	1:36
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:34	1:37
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	13:07	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	2	5	1	-2	0	13:00	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-2	0	12:17	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	12:13	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	11:44	0:00
A. Romanov	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	22:17	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	21:32	1:35
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	20:46	0:24
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	19:35	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	-4	0	18:01	0:00
S. Perunovich	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-4	0	16:37	0:25

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	11	6	5	.545	40:00	Loss
J. Skarek	7	7	0	1.000	19:24

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.8, NYI 2.9	NYR 5, NYI 1
Total goals	5.7	6
Shots on goal	NYR 27.8, NYI 30.5	NYR 18, NYI 37
Win chance	NYI 51%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	5	0.80	0	32%	0
NYI B. Nelson	3.0	2	0.84	1	34%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.8	2	0.65	0	28%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	3	1.01	0	30%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.4	1	0.62	1	11%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	0	0.76	1	25%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	2	0.70	0	24%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.3	4	0.69	0	27%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	1	0.89	1	26%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	0	0.52	0	21%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.8	0	0.73	1	10%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.8	1	0.36	0	4%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	2	0.39	0	18%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.7	1	0.53	0	23%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.7	3	0.35	1	6%	1
NYR R. Smith	1.6	1	0.47	1	17%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.5	2	0.45	0	15%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.5	0	0.34	0	7%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.4	2	0.46	0	14%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	2	0.27	3	11%	2
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	1	0.50	0	21%	0
NYR J. Vesey	1.3	1	0.28	0	13%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	1.3	4	0.34	0	8%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	2	0.28	0	5%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	2	0.21	1	4%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.2	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	3	0.25	0	10%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.1	2	0.30	0	13%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	1	0.23	0	11%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.28	2	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.9	1	0.19	3	2%	1
NYI K. MacLean	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.8	1	0.15	1	8%	1
NYI S. Perunovich	0.8	1	0.37	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.