Game Recap: NYR 3, OTT 4 (OT), March 8, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NYR3

Final/OTSat, Mar 8, 2025Every game that night

OTT4

OTT beat NYR 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.54 expected goals to 2.27. OTT outshot NYR 37 to 23. B. Tkachuk led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Tkachuk had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 4.3. L. Ullmark stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYR	1	1	1	0	3
OTT	0	1	2	1	4

1st 8:37NYRC. Soucy0.02 xG
2nd 3:55NYRM. Zibanejad0.04 xG
2nd 4:06OTTB. Tkachuk0.04 xG
3rd 7:08NYRA. Panarin0.16 xG
3rd 10:16OTTR. Greig0.44 xG
3rd 17:08OTTM. Amadio0.16 xG
OT 0:33OTTB. Tkachuk0.11 xG

Team Stats

NYROTT

23Shots on goal37

2.27Expected goals3.54

52Shot attempts71

195v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play0/5

27Hits40

21Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways9

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.27 xGOTT 3.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR22 on goal, 3 scored

OTT37 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	0	17:39	2:39
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	22:00	2:34
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	19:19	2:33
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	17:58	2:35
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	0	4	1	+1	0	15:23	1:21
J. Brodzinski	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	10:05	1:26
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:02	1:27
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	15:12	1:25
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	2	13:10	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	2	10:33	0:00
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	9:30	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	8:16	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	0	24:36	1:27
C. Soucy	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	15:39	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	21:16	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	20:39	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	+1	0	19:34	0:00
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	15:11	2:33

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	37	33	4	.892	60:20	OT loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Tkachuk	LW	2	0	2	9	4	0	+2	0	19:55	5:00
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	0	23:32	5:46
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	2	3	1	-1	2	21:12	3:46
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	1	9	0	0	0	17:27	4:15
D. Perron	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	15:41	5:08
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	3	4	0	-2	0	15:13	0:04
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	18:18	4:42
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:29	1:15
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:06	4:14
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+2	0	12:23	5:37
M. Highmore	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:28	0:01
T. Chabot	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	24:02	5:30
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+2	0	15:52	0:02
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	23:15	4:33
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	2	16:12	0:07
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	14:53	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	10:23	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	6:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	23	20	3	.870	60:32	Win
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.1, OTT 2.8	NYR 3, OTT 4
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	NYR 27.8, OTT 30.5	NYR 23, OTT 37
Win chance	NYR 53%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.3	9	0.87	2	33%	2
NYR A. Panarin	3.0	3	1.07	2	33%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	2	0.86	1	28%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.5	1	0.74	1	26%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.4	3	1.00	1	28%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	2	0.77	0	25%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.3	3	0.58	0	9%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	1	0.56	1	20%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.2	1	0.58	0	32%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	2	0.47	1	9%	0
OTT C. Giroux	2.1	1	0.73	0	24%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	0	0.96	1	29%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	2	0.49	0	20%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.9	2	0.54	0	22%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.9	1	0.55	1	21%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	0	0.44	1	21%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.7	2	0.41	1	17%	1
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	3	0.42	1	20%	1
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	3	0.29	1	12%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.3	0	0.33	1	8%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.3	3	0.29	0	15%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	1	0.23	0	5%	0
NYR B. Othmann	1.2	0	0.15	0	9%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.2	2	0.28	0	5%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.2	2	0.28	0	6%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.1	2	0.14	0	4%	0
OTT M. Highmore	1.1	0	0.23	0	9%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	2	0.27	0	12%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	2	0.23	0	5%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.0	0	0.24	1	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.9	2	0.22	0	3%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.8	1	0.17	0	9%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.8	1	0.17	1	5%	1
OTT T. Kleven	0.7	1	0.08	0	2%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.7	0	0.26	0	10%	0
OTT D. Gilbert	0.4	0	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.