Game Recap: NYR 4, OTT 2, December 4, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR4

FinalThu, Dec 4, 2025Every game that night

OTT2

NYR beat OTT 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.54 expected goals to 2.52. J. Miller led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). I. Shesterkin stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	2	1	1	4
OTT	1	0	1	2

1st 3:19NYRM. Zibanejad0.09 xG
1st 9:45NYRV. Gavrikov0.05 xG
1st 18:30OTTD. CozensPP0.12 xG
2nd 7:24NYRW. Borgen0.04 xG
3rd 13:08OTTD. BathersonPP0.17 xG
3rd 19:16NYRA. PanarinEN0.66 xG

Team Stats

NYROTT

28Shots on goal27

4.54Expected goals2.52

59Shot attempts57

265v5 shots on goal25

0/1Power play2/3

20Hits29

13Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways13

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 4.54 xGOTT 2.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR28 on goal, 4 scored

OTT27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	0	3	3	1	1	0	+3	2	20:56	1:32
A. Panarin	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	19:21	1:41
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+2	0	21:12	1:30
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	19:46	1:29
J. Brodzinski	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	10:55	0:28
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:19	0:31
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	15:03	0:28
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	13:48	0:31
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	1	6	3	0	2	13:18	1:29
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	11:58	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	8:53	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	8:16	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+3	0	25:16	0:02
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+3	0	24:05	0:00
W. Borgen	D	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	2	18:43	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	16:37	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:21	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:27	0:19

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	27	25	2	.926	60:00	Win
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	1	1	2	4	2	0	-2	0	23:05	3:15
D. Cozens	C	1	0	1	3	3	1	-2	0	23:20	3:14
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	5	5	0	-3	0	20:42	3:08
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	2	23:18	3:26
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	16:37	0:32
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:35	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	14:36	0:38
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	13:57	0:31
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:10	0:20
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:58	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	6:35	0:00
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:07	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	0	2	2	2	0	3	-2	0	27:30	3:16
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	21:02	0:30
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	18:58	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	18:19	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	15:24	0:00
D. Gilbert	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	27	24	3	.889	57:57	Loss
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck16:15J. Miller16:45C. Sheary14:03

Line 2A. Panarin16:19A. Lafrenière14:55M. Zibanejad15:01

Line 3N. Laba12:40B. Berard11:58W. Cuylle10:51

Line 4S. Carrick8:16T. Raddysh8:53J. Brodzinski10:27

Pair 1V. Gavrikov21:46B. Schneider20:49

Pair 2C. Soucy16:01W. Borgen16:51

Pair 3M. Robertson13:57S. Morrow15:08

OTT

Line 1B. Tkachuk16:07T. Stützle17:49F. Zetterlund12:56

Line 2D. Cozens18:03D. Batherson17:47D. Perron13:26

Line 3C. Giroux13:09M. Amadio15:30S. Pinto5:07

Line 4N. Cousins8:58S. Halliday6:35R. Greig10:50

Pair 1J. Sanderson21:00J. Spence19:59

Pair 2T. Kleven17:28N. Matinpalo17:33

Pair 3N. Jensen14:48D. Gilbert13:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.8, OTT 2.8	NYR 4, OTT 2
Total goals	5.6	6
Shots on goal	NYR 24.9, OTT 28.1	NYR 28, OTT 27
Win chance	OTT 50%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.6	5	0.75	1	29%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	2	1.17	2	35%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	5	0.83	1	28%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	4	0.79	2	26%	1
OTT S. Pinto	2.3	0	0.64	0	27%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.3	2	0.92	0	27%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.3	2	0.59	2	11%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	2	0.83	1	27%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.2	3	0.57	1	20%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	2.2	1	0.59	0	23%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	1	0.97	3	30%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.8	1	0.38	0	16%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.7	3	0.54	0	22%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.7	0	0.66	0	21%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.6	0	0.36	1	16%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.6	1	0.25	0	13%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	0	0.41	0	15%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	0	0.44	0	20%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.4	3	0.50	0	19%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	1	0.35	1	7%	1
OTT T. Kleven	1.3	0	0.20	0	4%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.3	1	0.40	0	5%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.2	2	0.33	0	12%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.2	2	0.32	0	15%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.1	1	0.23	0	4%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	0	0.23	1	5%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
NYR C. Soucy	1.0	0	0.20	1	6%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.0	2	0.16	0	3%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.9	2	0.21	1	4%	1
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.8	2	0.12	0	4%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.8	3	0.18	0	7%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.7	1	0.18	0	3%	0
OTT D. Gilbert	0.6	0	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.