Game Recap: NYR 4, OTT 7, October 24, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR4

FinalSat, Oct 24, 2026Every game that night

OTT7

OTT beat NYR 7-4, with the chances close: 4.01 expected goals to 3.33. D. Batherson scored three for OTT. A. Lafrenière had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Johansson stopped 24 of 28.

Team Stats

NYROTT

28Shots on goal24

3.33Expected goals4.01

66Shot attempts45

195v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play0/3

21Hits34

13Blocked shots19

8Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways12

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.33 xGOTT 4.01 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR28 on goal, 4 scored

OTT20 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Cuylle	LW	1	1	2	1	2	2	-2	0	19:32	0:40
J. Miller	C	1	1	2	1	2	0	-1	2	17:57	1:51
N. Laba	C	0	2	2	1	2	1	0	0	17:15	0:16
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	0	1	7	0	0	-1	0	19:33	1:52
P. Dorofeyev	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	-3	2	19:04	1:55
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	10:20	0:26
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	20:26	1:53
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	15:13	0:16
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	14:54	0:28
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:59	0:27
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	6:08	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	5:55	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	0	1	2	0	0	24:00	1:49
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	23:01	0:16
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	2	20:36	0:00
S. Durzi	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	19:58	0:46
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	15:13	0:00
A. Smits	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Garand	22	17	5	.773	58:29	Loss
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	3	1	4	3	4	2	+2	2	14:44	2:05
D. Cozens	C	1	1	2	2	5	1	+1	0	17:15	2:28
M. Amadio	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	17:13	0:00
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+1	0	20:35	3:17
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	2	2	3	+2	0	18:55	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	0	2	3	+1	0	17:17	1:43
C. Giroux	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	0	16:19	2:13
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	2	19:58	1:55
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:49	0:16
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:42	1:39
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	7:48	0:00
S. Halliday	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	5:39	1:45
J. Sanderson	D	1	2	3	2	0	1	+1	0	23:11	2:19
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	19:17	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	2	19:09	0:08
C. Yakemchuk	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:07	2:51
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	4	2	5	+2	0	21:48	0:16
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Johansson	28	24	4	.857	59:34	Win
S. Ersson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:09A. Lafrenière14:36G. Perreault13:40

Line 2W. Cuylle13:24N. Laba13:43P. Dorofeyev15:12

Line 3J. Miller13:03T. Kartye12:51O. Bjorkstrand9:54

Line 4L. Glendening5:28T. Raddysh5:55E. Tolvanen9:25

Pair 1M. Pettersson17:21S. Durzi16:38

Pair 2V. Gavrikov18:02A. Fox17:04

Pair 3B. Schneider12:28A. Smits13:27

OTT

Line 1C. Giroux13:54F. Zetterlund15:34T. Stützle14:14

Line 2S. Pinto14:35M. Amadio14:51R. Greig14:50

Line 3D. Cozens13:18D. Batherson11:13W. Foegele11:13

Line 4N. Cousins7:22A. Burakovsky7:37S. Halliday3:28

Pair 1J. Spence17:55T. Kleven19:07

Pair 2A. Zub14:52J. Sanderson15:51

Pair 3N. Matinpalo13:44C. Yakemchuk13:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 19 overs hit (37%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
OTT D. Batherson	2.5	+145	-170	3	Over
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	+108	-135	2	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	2.5	+138	-150	2	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	+130	-155	1	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.5	+106	-120	4	Over
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	+136	-155	2	Under
NYR A. Fox	1.5	+110	-140	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.5	-168	+135	7	Over
OTT C. Giroux	1.5	-145	+115	0	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	1.5	-110	-135	3	Over
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.5	-144	+120	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	+100	-130	3	Over
NYR J. Miller	1.5	-130	+105	1	Under
OTT J. Spence	1.5	+110	-160	0	Under
OTT R. Greig	1.5	-110	-105	2	Over
OTT S. Halliday	1.5	-105	-140	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	1.5	-160	+140	2	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	1.5	+100	-120	1	Under
OTT W. Foegele	1.5	+100	-125	0	Under

9 of 34 overs hit (26%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
OTT A. Burakovsky	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+195	-270	1	Over
OTT A. Zub	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+360	-450	0	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+185	-250	3	Over
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+280	-400	1	Over
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+460	-900	0	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+370	-450	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+350	-550	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+290	-350	1	Over
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	+600	-750	1	Over
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
OTT M. Amadio	0.5	+550	-1200	1	Over
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+2300	-3500	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+210	-240	0	Under
OTT N. Cousins	0.5	+1300	-2000	0	Under
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+195	-270	1	Over
OTT R. Greig	0.5	+440	-600	0	Under
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+1000	-2800	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+380	-550	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+240	-350	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+500	-650	0	Under
OTT T. Kleven	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
NYR T. Raddysh	0.5	+1100	-1400	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+180	-210	1	Over
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+425	-600	1	Over
OTT W. Foegele	0.5	+500	-650	0	Under

12 of 23 overs hit (52%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-115	+100	2	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+172	-210	0	Under
OTT A. Zub	0.5	+320	-475	1	Over
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+160	-190	1	Over
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+235	-275	1	Over
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+145	-175	1	Over
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+180	-220	1	Over
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+270	-350	1	Over
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+245	-325	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+138	-150	1	Over
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	+118	-135	2	Over
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+295	-400	1	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+118	-150	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+220	-275	0	Under
OTT R. Greig	0.5	+260	-370	1	Over
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+270	-325	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+225	-295	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+280	-380	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+350	-525	1	Over
OTT W. Foegele	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under

15 of 23 overs hit (65%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-135	+125	2	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	-132	+115	1	Over
OTT A. Zub	0.5	+260	-370	1	Over
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	-105	-105	1	Over
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+170	-220	1	Over
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	-150	+135	4	Over
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	-105	+100	2	Over
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+145	-175	1	Over
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+135	-150	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	-128	+110	2	Over
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	-115	-105	3	Over
OTT J. Spence	0.5	+230	-275	1	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	-170	+140	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	-125	-105	1	Over
OTT R. Greig	0.5	+145	-190	1	Over
NYR S. Durzi	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+110	-125	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+190	-200	0	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	-225	+180	1	Over
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+210	-285	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+180	-200	2	Over
OTT W. Foegele	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under

0 of 15 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+220	-240	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+250	-295	Under
OTT C. Giroux	0.5	+310	-650	Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk	0.5	+400	-800	Under
OTT D. Batherson	0.5	+200	-295	Under
OTT D. Cozens	0.5	+300	-400	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
OTT F. Zetterlund	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+180	-250	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	0.5	+180	-250	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+190	-250	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+235	-350	Under
OTT S. Halliday	0.5	+340	-650	Under
OTT S. Pinto	0.5	+400	-750	Under
OTT T. Stützle	0.5	+195	-250	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NYR D. Garand	25.5	-102	-115	17	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
OTT A. Zub	1.5	-140	+100	0	Under
OTT J. Sanderson	1.5	-160	+110	1	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	-120	-120	4	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.9, OTT 3.1	NYR 4, OTT 7
Total goals	6.0	11
Shots on goal	NYR 22.5, OTT 28.7	NYR 28, OTT 24
Win chance	OTT 53%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.6	4	0.70	1	32%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	2	0.68	2	25%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.4	2	1.11	1	33%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.2	1	0.97	0	32%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	3	0.83	4	29%	3
OTT F. Zetterlund	2.1	0	0.44	1	19%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.1	2	0.57	3	10%	1
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	2	0.64	0	26%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.9	7	0.79	1	28%	1
OTT C. Giroux	1.8	0	0.68	1	22%	0
OTT W. Foegele	1.8	0	0.39	0	19%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	1	0.47	2	21%	1
NYR J. Miller	1.7	1	0.90	2	28%	1
OTT R. Greig	1.7	2	0.47	1	18%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.6	3	0.55	0	22%	0
OTT S. Halliday	1.5	0	0.47	0	16%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.5	0	0.36	1	7%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.4	4	0.27	0	6%	0
OTT C. Yakemchuk	1.4	3	0.27	1	6%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.4	0	0.84	2	13%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.2	3	0.46	0	18%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.2	1	0.35	0	8%	0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.2	0	0.34	1	14%	0
NYR S. Durzi	1.1	2	0.39	0	9%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.1	2	0.40	2	18%	1
OTT A. Zub	1.0	1	0.28	1	5%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.0	1	0.22	0	5%	0
OTT A. Burakovsky	1.0	0	0.39	0	14%	0
NYR N. Laba	0.9	1	0.32	2	13%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.8	1	0.22	0	8%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.8	0	0.12	0	2%	0
NYR M. Pettersson	0.7	1	0.27	0	5%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.7	0	0.23	0	9%	0
NYR A. Smits	0.5	0	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.