Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
NYR6
PHI3
NYR beat PHI 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.60 expected goals to 2.59. M. Zibanejad scored three for NYR. C. York had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. S. Martin stopped 25 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| PHI | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 6:22PHIT. Konecny0.07 xG
- 1st 7:05NYRA. Panarin0.19 xG
- 1st 7:26NYRM. Zibanejad0.04 xG
- 1st 8:25NYRB. Othmann0.19 xG
- 2nd 5:38NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 8:25NYRM. Zibanejad0.26 xG
- 2nd 14:31NYRA. Panarin0.10 xG
- 2nd 16:48PHIT. SanheimSH0.18 xG
- 3rd 8:01PHIT. Zegras0.27 xG
Team Stats
NYRPHI
28Shots on goal28
3.60Expected goals2.59
60Shot attempts64
215v5 shots on goal24
1/3Power play0/1
26Hits27
21Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways14
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 3.60 xGPHI 2.59 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:56 | 5:16 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:02 | 5:13 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:45 | 5:13 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 3:51 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:34 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:38 | 0:38 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:41 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 2:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:30 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:01 | 0:00 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:19 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:37 | 4:36 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:38 | 0:09 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
PHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Zegras | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:12 | 1:33 |
| T. Konecny | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:52 | 1:27 |
| O. Tippett | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 0:32 |
| D. Barkey | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:28 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:30 |
| M. Michkov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:11 | 0:27 |
| N. Cates | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:30 |
| S. Couturier | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Grebenkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:53 | 0:00 |
| G. Hathaway | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| R. Abols | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1:19 | 0:00 |
| T. Sanheim | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:00 | 1:28 |
| C. York | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 0 | 22:00 | 0:53 |
| N. Seeler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Drysdale | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:20 | 1:12 |
| N. Juulsen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:00 |
| E. Andrae | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kolosov | 3 | 0 | 3 | .000 | 8:25 | |
| S. Ersson | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 51:35 | Loss |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYR
Line 1V. Trocheck13:53A. Panarin14:32A. Lafrenière13:31
Line 2W. Cuylle16:00N. Laba15:07B. Othmann12:19
Line 3J. Miller13:23M. Zibanejad13:01G. Perreault13:29
Line 4S. Carrick10:18J. Brodzinski7:30T. Raddysh7:16
Pair 1V. Gavrikov17:04B. Schneider20:25
Pair 2W. Borgen15:57M. Robertson18:23
Pair 3S. Morrow14:38U. Vaakanainen13:44
PHI
Line 1S. Couturier12:55N. Grebenkin13:53O. Tippett13:15
Line 2N. Cates12:31M. Michkov14:58T. Konecny15:07
Line 3C. Dvorak13:01C. Grundstrom12:52G. Hathaway10:01
Pair 1N. Juulsen13:41E. Andrae16:42
Pair 2N. Seeler16:11T. Sanheim18:46
Pair 3J. Drysdale16:51C. York18:14
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 2.9, PHI 3.0 | NYR 6, PHI 3 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 23.1, PHI 28.0 | NYR 28, PHI 28 |
| Win chance | PHI 51% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI O. Tippett | 2.8 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.8 | 5 | 1.21 | 3 | 35% | 2 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.3 | 4 | 0.94 | 3 | 29% | 3 |
| PHI T. Zegras | 2.3 | 3 | 0.83 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| PHI M. Michkov | 2.2 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PHI T. Konecny | 2.2 | 4 | 0.86 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| PHI C. Dvorak | 2.1 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.0 | 3 | 0.85 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.0 | 2 | 0.99 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| PHI C. Grundstrom | 1.8 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| PHI S. Couturier | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.6 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI N. Cates | 1.5 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| PHI D. Barkey | 1.4 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| PHI C. York | 1.4 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI T. Sanheim | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI N. Seeler | 1.3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PHI J. Drysdale | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| PHI R. Abols | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR S. Morrow | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR G. Perreault | 1.0 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PHI E. Andrae | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 0.9 | 1 | 0.11 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| PHI N. Grebenkin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PHI G. Hathaway | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PHI N. Juulsen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.