NYR beat PIT 6-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.97 expected goals to 2.76. NYR outshot PIT 40 to 31. C. Kreider led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Beauvillier had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. I. Shesterkin stopped 31 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 2:24NYRS. Carrick0.21 xG
- 1st 17:23NYRA. Lafrenière0.16 xG
- 1st 19:48NYRC. Kreider0.21 xG
- 2nd 9:39NYRF. Chytil0.19 xG
- 3rd 11:35NYRC. KreiderSH0.20 xG
- 3rd 16:59NYRV. Trocheck0.56 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 4.97 xGPIT 2.76 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:45 | 3:11 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:30 | 3:13 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:51 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:56 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| F. Chytil | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:08 | 0:59 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:54 | 1:03 |
| S. Carrick | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 3:09 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:47 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 5 | +2 | 2 | 18:35 | 0:01 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:58 | 3:29 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 20:38 | 0:31 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 0 | 20:20 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 31 | 31 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
PIT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Crosby | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 20:59 | 3:43 |
| E. Malkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:20 | 3:45 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 2:13 |
| R. Rakell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 3:44 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:02 | 2:36 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 2 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Beauvillier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Acciari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Puljujarvi | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:46 | 2:16 |
| R. McGroarty | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:20 | 0:00 |
| K. Hayes | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:06 | 2:17 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:48 | 0:00 |
| K. Letang | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:27 | 3:38 |
| E. Karlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:01 | 3:17 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:44 | 2:31 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:36 | 0:00 |
| J. St. Ivany | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| R. Graves | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Jarry | 40 | 34 | 6 | .850 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Blomqvist | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.1, PIT 3.1 | NYR 6, PIT 0 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 29.0, PIT 34.2 | NYR 40, PIT 31 |
| Win chance | NYR 50% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.4 | 2 | 1.26 | 2 | 33% | 0 |
| PIT S. Crosby | 3.4 | 2 | 1.03 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 3.0 | 5 | 0.87 | 2 | 39% | 2 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 3.0 | 0 | 0.99 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.9 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.7 | 3 | 0.67 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| PIT E. Malkin | 2.7 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| PIT M. Bunting | 2.6 | 5 | 0.68 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| PIT E. Karlsson | 2.6 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| PIT D. O'Connor | 2.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT R. Rakell | 2.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| PIT K. Letang | 2.1 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT K. Hayes | 2.1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.1 | 4 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| NYR R. Smith | 2.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| PIT L. Eller | 2.0 | 4 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 2.0 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| PIT C. Glass | 1.9 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.8 | 4 | 0.36 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| PIT A. Beauvillier | 1.8 | 7 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.4 | 5 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.4 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| PIT M. Pettersson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.4 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT J. Puljujarvi | 1.2 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| PIT M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| PIT N. Acciari | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| PIT R. Graves | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| PIT J. Ivany | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 11 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.