Game Recap: NYR 2, STL 1 (OT), December 18, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR2

Final/OTThu, Dec 18, 2025Every game that night

STL1

NYR beat STL 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.07 expected goals to 2.66. R. Thomas had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. I. Shesterkin stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYR	0	1	0	1	2
STL	1	0	0	0	1

1st 18:58STLJ. Berggren0.02 xG
2nd 6:02NYRG. PerreaultPP0.09 xG
OT 2:21NYRJ. Miller0.05 xG

Team Stats

NYRSTL

31Shots on goal27

3.07Expected goals2.66

52Shot attempts56

225v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/3

24Hits13

17Blocked shots7

8Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways13

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.07 xGSTL 2.66 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR30 on goal, 2 scored

STL27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	4	3	1	0	0	22:49	3:11
J. Miller	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0	20:57	3:12
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	17:52	0:44
N. Laba	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:29	0:49
G. Perreault	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	13:09	0:46
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	21:26	3:09
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	19:17	3:06
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:36	0:35
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	11:41	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:47	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:02	0:00
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	7:14	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	26:36	0:39
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	24:02	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:58	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:06	3:16
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	16:53	0:08
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	27	26	1	.963	62:21	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Berggren	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:04	1:19
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	15:40	3:41
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	6	0	1	0	0	21:03	3:43
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	20:44	3:39
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:23	2:18
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:48	2:22
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	16:32	2:23
O. Stenberg	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	15:12	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:02	2:56
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	12:57	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:19	0:00
M. Luff	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:20	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	2	25:12	2:52
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	22:22	3:17
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:54	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:53	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:11	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:32	1:30

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	31	29	2	.935	62:21	OT loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck15:34C. Sheary15:01J. Miller14:09

Line 2A. Lafrenière15:18M. Zibanejad15:03W. Cuylle14:23

Line 3N. Laba11:15G. Perreault12:23T. Raddysh10:44

Line 4S. Carrick10:22M. Rempe8:02B. Othmann7:14

Pair 1B. Schneider20:23V. Gavrikov21:39

Pair 2C. Soucy15:16W. Borgen14:12

Pair 3M. Robertson14:37S. Morrow13:50

STL

Line 1P. Buchnevich15:20R. Thomas15:14A. Toropchenko11:28

Line 2B. Schenn13:38J. Neighbours13:51O. Stenberg14:16

Line 3P. Suter13:02D. Dvorsky11:31J. Berggren14:49

Line 4O. Sundqvist8:03M. Joseph11:04M. Luff7:20

Pair 1C. Parayko16:52P. Broberg15:54

Pair 2J. Faulk21:42T. Tucker15:01

Pair 3C. Fowler17:18L. Mailloux13:02

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.8, STL 2.6	NYR 2, STL 1
Total goals	5.5	3
Shots on goal	NYR 25.6, STL 25.6	NYR 31, STL 27
Win chance	NYR 54%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	3	0.86	0	28%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	4	0.85	1	28%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.3	4	1.03	1	32%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	2.1	0	0.57	1	23%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.9	0	0.59	0	23%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	3	0.70	0	24%	0
STL P. Suter	1.8	1	0.47	0	20%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.7	6	0.91	0	22%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.6	2	0.41	0	8%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	0	0.38	0	9%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.5	0	0.50	0	18%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.5	2	0.36	0	9%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.5	1	0.37	0	14%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	3	0.41	1	9%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.5	1	0.27	1	16%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	1	0.56	0	23%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.4	1	0.28	0	7%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	3	0.43	0	7%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.2	2	0.21	0	6%	0
STL M. Luff	1.2	0	0.25	0	12%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.2	1	0.31	1	15%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.1	2	0.23	0	4%	0
NYR B. Othmann	1.1	1	0.15	0	8%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	4	0.24	0	10%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.1	1	0.29	1	13%	1
STL M. Joseph	1.1	0	0.28	0	9%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.1	1	0.24	1	12%	1
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	3	0.22	0	5%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	0	0.33	0	10%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.0	1	0.17	0	5%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	1	0.21	0	7%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.8	1	0.22	0	10%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.8	3	0.17	0	7%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	1	0.17	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.