Game Recap: NYR 2, TBL 6, December 28, 2024

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Game Recap

NYR2

FinalSat, Dec 28, 2024Every game that night

TBL6

TBL beat NYR 6-2, with the chances close: 2.94 expected goals to 3.23. NYR outshot TBL 44 to 25. N. Kucherov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Kreider had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. A. Vasilevskiy stopped 42 of 44.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	0	1	2
TBL	2	3	1	6

1st 2:27TBLN. KucherovPP0.19 xG
1st 9:23NYRA. Panarin0.11 xG
1st 18:11TBLR. McDonaghSH0.12 xG
2nd 3:35TBLB. Point0.14 xG
2nd 5:02TBLA. CirelliSH0.16 xG
2nd 8:08TBLJ. GuentzelPP0.18 xG
3rd 0:13NYRV. TrocheckSH0.07 xG
3rd 14:12TBLN. Paul0.18 xG

Team Stats

NYRTBL

44Shots on goal25

3.23Expected goals2.94

78Shot attempts47

345v5 shots on goal16

0/4Power play2/5

23Hits13

12Blocked shots18

10Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways12

10Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.23 xGTBL 2.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR44 on goal, 2 scored

TBL24 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	1	1	2	4	0	3	0	0	24:31	5:41
A. Panarin	LW	1	0	1	6	0	1	-1	0	20:08	5:41
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-2	0	19:10	2:47
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	19:03	4:34
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	6	1	0	-3	0	18:39	5:40
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	2	16:35	1:22
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:06	1:24
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	3	4	1	-1	0	13:21	1:23
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	10:05	0:06
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	9:12	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:10	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	6	5:08	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	25:31	5:32
R. Lindgren	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	17:42	0:13
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	4	4	1	-1	0	21:54	1:44
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	17:04	0:12
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	16:15	0:01
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	13	8	5	.615	28:08	Loss
J. Quick	12	11	1	.917	31:32

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kucherov	RW	1	2	3	5	0	1	0	0	19:55	5:34
B. Point	C	1	2	3	3	0	1	0	0	19:12	5:25
J. Guentzel	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	0	17:22	5:34
A. Cirelli	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+1	0	15:59	0:15
B. Hagel	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	21:43	5:25
N. Paul	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	17:15	0:00
M. Chaffee	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	14:42	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	13:16	0:00
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:57	0:00
Z. Girgensons	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	9:58	0:00
C. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	9:27	0:12
C. Atkinson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	7:16	0:00
R. McDonagh	D	1	0	1	2	0	4	+1	0	20:12	0:00
V. Hedman	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	2	25:02	5:34
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:07	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	17:56	0:03
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	16:41	0:03
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	16:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	44	42	2	.955	59:56	Win
J. Johansson	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.2, TBL 3.6	NYR 2, TBL 6
Total goals	6.9	8
Shots on goal	NYR 28.5, TBL 32.1	NYR 44, TBL 25
Win chance	TBL 57%	TBL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL J. Guentzel	2.9	2	0.98	2	35%	1
TBL N. Kucherov	2.8	5	1.31	3	30%	1
NYR A. Panarin	2.6	6	1.07	1	31%	1
TBL B. Point	2.5	3	1.09	3	39%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.4	0	0.95	1	30%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.3	6	0.63	0	33%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	4	0.75	2	25%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.2	2	0.63	0	25%	0
TBL V. Hedman	2.0	3	0.77	0	11%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.0	5	0.70	0	24%	0
NYR F. Chytil	1.9	1	0.45	0	18%	0
TBL A. Cirelli	1.8	2	0.65	2	22%	1
NYR A. Fox	1.7	3	0.80	1	13%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.7	2	0.51	1	21%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	1.6	3	0.45	0	20%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.6	3	0.50	0	18%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.5	2	0.26	0	13%	0
TBL C. Atkinson	1.3	1	0.27	0	12%	0
TBL C. Geekie	1.2	0	0.32	0	13%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.2	1	0.35	0	5%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	1.1	0	0.32	0	16%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.1	2	0.19	0	10%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.1	4	0.28	0	8%	0
TBL N. Perbix	1.1	0	0.30	0	5%	0
TBL R. McDonagh	1.0	2	0.31	1	3%	1
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
NYR J. Vesey	0.9	3	0.23	0	10%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	0	0.16	0	10%	0
TBL L. Glendening	0.8	1	0.14	0	9%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.8	1	0.21	1	4%	0
TBL E. Cernak	0.8	0	0.21	0	2%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	0.8	1	0.17	0	10%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.8	0	0.21	0	2%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	0	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.