Game Recap: NYR 7, TBL 3, November 12, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR7

FinalWed, Nov 12, 2025Every game that night

TBL3

NYR beat TBL 7-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.33 expected goals to 4.95. TBL outshot NYR 36 to 21. A. Panarin led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). D. Raddysh had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. I. Shesterkin stopped 33 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	4	1	2	7
TBL	3	0	0	3

1st 1:09NYRW. CuyllePP0.16 xG
1st 3:31NYRJ. Miller0.19 xG
1st 6:04TBLS. Sabourin0.05 xG
1st 7:08NYRA. Lafrenière0.16 xG
1st 13:59TBLZ. Girgensons0.11 xG
1st 16:20NYRW. Borgen0.01 xG
1st 17:32TBLJ. GuentzelSH0.23 xG
2nd 18:19NYRV. Trocheck0.11 xG
3rd 5:03NYRV. Trocheck0.11 xG
3rd 17:49NYRW. CuylleEN0.74 xG

Team Stats

NYRTBL

21Shots on goal36

3.33Expected goals4.95

48Shot attempts78

185v5 shots on goal25

1/3Power play0/3

21Hits26

15Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways13

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.33 xGTBL 4.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR21 on goal, 7 scored

TBL36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	4	4	1	0	0	+2	0	16:17	2:34
W. Cuylle	LW	2	0	2	2	4	1	0	0	18:00	2:34
V. Trocheck	C	2	0	2	2	3	1	+4	0	16:43	1:46
J. Miller	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	21:22	2:34
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:13	2:34
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+3	0	13:51	1:50
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:08	0:00
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:14	1:50
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	12:43	1:13
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:32	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	9:46	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	8:33	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	0	0	3	+1	2	22:10	2:34
C. Soucy	D	0	1	1	1	4	0	+2	0	22:24	0:41
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	4	20:51	0:00
W. Borgen	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	19:47	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	13:49	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+2	0	18:37	1:50

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	36	33	3	.917	60:00	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Guentzel	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	-1	0	23:08	6:00
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	5	0	2	-1	0	18:57	5:37
Z. Girgensons	C	1	0	1	2	2	2	-1	0	15:41	0:00
Y. Gourde	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-2	4	14:27	0:06
J. Finley	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	12:44	0:09
S. Sabourin	RW	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	2	11:42	0:00
C. Douglas	C	0	1	1	0	3	3	0	0	9:11	0:00
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	23:56	6:00
B. Point	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	22:12	5:45
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:08	2:14
B. Katchouk	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	13:14	0:00
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	2:24	0:00
J. Moser	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:44	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	5	2	1	0	0	22:48	5:26
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	0	4	4	-2	0	19:55	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:24	0:05
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-5	0	17:11	0:36
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	16:25	0:07

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Vasilevskiy	13	8	5	.615	40:00	Loss
J. Johansson	7	6	1	.857	16:33

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad14:20J. Miller15:25G. Perreault11:30

Line 2A. Panarin13:43A. Lafrenière12:01V. Trocheck11:37

Line 3C. Sheary11:24N. Laba14:21W. Cuylle12:01

Line 4T. Raddysh10:05A. Edstrom9:43S. Carrick8:12

Pair 1V. Gavrikov18:29A. Fox17:52

Pair 2C. Soucy17:30W. Borgen16:28

Pair 3U. Vaakanainen13:08B. Schneider12:41

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov16:57B. Point15:31J. Guentzel14:00

Line 2Y. Gourde12:36Z. Girgensons13:47O. Bjorkstrand12:24

Line 3C. Douglas9:06J. Finley11:10S. Sabourin11:42

Line 4B. Katchouk11:02G. Goncalves13:52

Pair 1D. Raddysh16:26J. Moser16:13

Pair 2C. D'Astous16:04E. Cernak16:54

Pair 3E. Lilleberg15:56M. Crozier14:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOliver Bjorkstrand NYR First game back in Tampa, his team until May 20261 A, 5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.9, TBL 3.1	NYR 7, TBL 3
Total goals	6.0	10
Shots on goal	NYR 26.7, TBL 27.4	NYR 21, TBL 36
Win chance	TBL 55%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.1	2	1.49	0	35%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	1	1.03	4	32%	0
TBL J. Guentzel	2.8	5	1.04	1	37%	1
TBL B. Hagel	2.7	0	0.98	0	31%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	2	0.80	1	27%	0
TBL B. Point	2.4	3	0.97	0	37%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.2	2	0.91	1	28%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	2.1	2	0.49	2	20%	2
NYR A. Fox	2.0	0	0.75	2	15%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	3	0.55	1	21%	1
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.8	5	0.59	1	21%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	1.8	2	0.59	2	20%	2
TBL Y. Gourde	1.5	2	0.47	1	15%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	0	0.27	1	7%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	1	0.33	0	13%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.3	1	0.29	0	12%	0
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	2	0.21	1	12%	1
NYR G. Perreault	1.2	1	0.26	0	12%	0
TBL B. Katchouk	1.1	0	0.22	0	9%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	1	0.22	0	6%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	1.1	5	0.30	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	0	0.22	0	9%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.1	1	0.32	0	14%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	1	0.19	1	5%	1
TBL M. Crozier	1.0	2	0.16	0	2%	0
NYR C. Soucy	1.0	1	0.17	1	7%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.0	1	0.36	0	5%	0
TBL J. Moser	1.0	3	0.24	1	5%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.0	2	0.39	0	13%	0
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	0	0.21	0	3%	0
TBL J. Finley	0.9	0	0.15	1	8%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.8	2	0.22	1	8%	1
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	0	0.18	1	2%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.7	2	0.17	0	9%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.6	2	0.18	0	2%	0
TBL C. Douglas	0.5	0	0.06	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.