Game Recap: NYR 4, TBL 2, April 15, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR4

FinalWed, Apr 15, 2026Every game that night

TBL2

NYR beat TBL 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.59 expected goals to 4.54. TBL outshot NYR 31 to 21. T. Kartye led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Perry had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Garand stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	3	0	4
TBL	0	1	1	2

1st 4:02NYRT. Kartye0.10 xG
2nd 1:29NYRT. Kartye0.12 xG
2nd 4:49NYRG. Perreault0.02 xG
2nd 11:15TBLO. Bjorkstrand0.84 xG
2nd 12:46NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.12 xG
3rd 0:51TBLC. Perry0.02 xG

Team Stats

NYRTBL

21Shots on goal31

2.59Expected goals4.54

47Shot attempts66

175v5 shots on goal23

1/3Power play0/3

23Hits18

16Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes10

12Giveaways19

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.59 xGTBL 4.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR21 on goal, 4 scored

TBL31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Kartye	LW	2	1	3	3	2	1	+1	2	15:05	0:34
M. Zibanejad	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+1	0	21:42	2:51
J. Miller	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	16:23	2:44
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:13	2:53
G. Perreault	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	17:10	0:38
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	1	5	2	+1	4	14:39	0:35
C. Sheary	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	11:37	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	20:19	2:41
J. Chmelar	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	4	13:26	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:27	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:57	0:44
A. Sykora	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:44	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	26:23	0:47
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:32	2:38
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	19:41	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+2	0	16:41	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	+1	0	16:17	0:00
D. Fortescue	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Garand	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

TBL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	2	19:16	3:52
Z. Girgensons	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	17:43	0:00
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	2	16:12	3:10
M. Chaffee	RW	0	1	1	0	5	1	0	0	13:19	0:00
S. Sabourin	RW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	11:27	0:00
N. Paul	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	21:47	5:02
N. Kucherov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	20:54	5:02
B. Hagel	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	20:16	5:02
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	18:56	0:00
G. Goncalves	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	12:56	0:00
J. Pelletier	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:10	0:00
E. Lilleberg	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	4	16:20	0:00
C. D'Astous	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	19:45	0:00
D. Raddysh	D	0	0	0	5	1	2	-1	0	18:51	5:02
D. Carlile	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:46	0:00
M. Crozier	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:30	0:00
E. Cernak	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:53	0:00
S. Santini	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	8:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Halverson	21	17	4	.810	56:47	Loss
A. Vasilevskiy	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad14:35A. Lafrenière15:07G. Perreault15:47

Line 2V. Trocheck13:45J. Chmelar13:26W. Cuylle12:45

Line 3T. Kartye12:29J. Miller11:54C. Sheary11:37

Line 4A. Sykora8:44N. Laba9:57T. Raddysh8:13

Pair 1V. Gavrikov20:02A. Fox17:22

Pair 2B. Schneider16:00D. Fortescue15:44

Pair 3W. Borgen14:12M. Robertson15:11

TBL

Line 1N. Kucherov14:39N. Paul14:46B. Hagel14:01

Line 2C. Perry11:49Z. Girgensons15:29O. Bjorkstrand15:07

Line 3S. Sabourin11:27M. Chaffee12:36Y. Gourde15:54

Line 4J. Pelletier10:30G. Goncalves11:35

Pair 1D. Carlile16:54M. Crozier15:02

Pair 2C. D'Astous17:46D. Raddysh12:36

Pair 3E. Lilleberg14:52E. Cernak12:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamOliver Bjorkstrand NYR First game back in Tampa, his team until May 20261 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.8, TBL 3.5	NYR 4, TBL 2
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	NYR 23.8, TBL 29.3	NYR 21, TBL 31
Win chance	TBL 62%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TBL N. Kucherov	3.0	1	1.63	0	37%	0
TBL B. Hagel	2.9	5	1.08	0	34%	0
TBL D. Raddysh	2.6	5	0.73	0	14%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	3	0.81	2	27%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	1	0.66	1	24%	0
NYR J. Miller	1.8	2	0.78	2	25%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	1.7	0	0.69	0	23%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	1	0.78	0	13%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.6	1	0.38	1	18%	0
TBL M. Crozier	1.4	2	0.23	0	3%	0
TBL O. Bjorkstrand	1.4	2	0.41	1	16%	1
NYR G. Perreault	1.3	3	0.42	1	16%	1
TBL Y. Gourde	1.3	1	0.43	0	14%	0
TBL G. Goncalves	1.3	0	0.56	0	17%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	1	0.32	1	8%	0
TBL N. Paul	1.3	3	0.35	0	17%	0
TBL C. Perry	1.3	4	0.43	1	19%	1
TBL Z. Girgensons	1.2	0	0.24	1	11%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
TBL C. D'Astous	1.1	3	0.38	0	7%	0
NYR A. Sykora	1.1	1	0.30	0	13%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.1	2	0.28	1	12%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.0	0	0.21	0	6%	0
TBL J. Pelletier	1.0	1	0.30	0	11%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.0	3	0.29	3	12%	2
TBL E. Cernak	1.0	1	0.20	0	4%	0
TBL D. Carlile	0.9	0	0.11	0	4%	0
TBL E. Lilleberg	0.9	1	0.25	1	4%	0
NYR N. Laba	0.9	0	0.28	0	11%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.9	1	0.25	0	13%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.9	0	0.19	0	5%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.8	1	0.24	0	10%	0
TBL M. Chaffee	0.8	0	0.18	1	11%	0
NYR D. Fortescue	0.6	0	0.19	0	3%	0
TBL S. Sabourin	0.5	1	0.18	1	6%	0
TBL S. Santini	0.5	1	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.