Game Recap: NYR 1, TOR 2 (OT), October 16, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NYR1

Final/OTThu, Oct 16, 2025Every game that night

TOR2

TOR beat NYR 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.41 expected goals to 3.05. W. Nylander led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). W. Cuylle had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. A. Stolarz stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYR	0	0	1	0	1
TOR	1	0	0	1	2

1st 11:48TORM. KniesPP0.15 xG
3rd 4:51NYRJ. Parssinen0.11 xG
OT 0:58TORA. Matthews0.11 xG

Team Stats

NYRTOR

29Shots on goal24

3.05Expected goals2.41

58Shot attempts48

215v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play1/2

22Hits18

10Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways21

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.05 xGTOR 2.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR29 on goal, 1 scored

TOR24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Parssinen	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	8:41	0:00
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	22:42	5:36
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	21:41	4:26
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:12	4:27
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:31	4:23
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:41	1:31
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	2	16:21	1:25
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	3	6	1	0	0	12:34	1:24
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	12:24	0:08
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	11:08	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	10:24	0:08
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:44	0:08
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	19:17	1:10
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	25:36	4:50
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	24:47	0:04
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:22	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:24	0:20
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	13:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	24	22	2	.917	60:51	OT loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

TOR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Nylander	RW	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	0	21:13	2:11
A. Matthews	C	1	0	1	2	0	3	+1	0	22:32	2:10
M. Knies	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	2	20:15	2:13
J. Tavares	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:54	1:58
M. Maccelli	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:43	1:38
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	14:24	1:35
M. Domi	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	14:23	1:37
C. Jarnkrok	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:18	0:00
E. Cowan	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:47	1:03
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:00	0:00
N. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10:35	0:36
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	2	9:15	0:00
M. Rielly	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	21:10	2:04
O. Ekman-Larsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	21:04	1:55
J. McCabe	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:39	0:00
S. Benoit	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	19:21	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:39	0:00
C. Tanev	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Stolarz	29	28	1	.966	60:48	Win
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:01A. Panarin16:26W. Cuylle14:29

Line 2J. Miller14:46C. Sheary15:23A. Lafrenière14:06

Line 3S. Carrick10:40A. Edstrom9:36M. Rempe11:10

Line 4T. Raddysh10:25N. Laba9:14J. Parssinen8:41

Pair 1V. Gavrikov21:56A. Fox19:22

Pair 2W. Borgen14:44M. Robertson13:41

Pair 3B. Schneider16:11U. Vaakanainen13:44

TOR

Line 1M. Knies16:08A. Matthews16:46E. Cowan10:27

Line 2J. Tavares14:50W. Nylander17:51M. Maccelli13:05

Line 3M. Domi12:46B. McMann12:01N. Robertson9:17

Line 4C. Jarnkrok9:05D. Joshua8:10N. Roy8:58

Pair 1O. Ekman-Larsson18:12S. Benoit17:32

Pair 2M. Rielly18:05B. Carlo16:06

Pair 3C. Tanev14:09J. McCabe16:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownWill Cuylle NYR Plays in his hometown5 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.0, TOR 3.1	NYR 1, TOR 2
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	NYR 27.5, TOR 27.6	NYR 29, TOR 24
Win chance	TOR 51%	TOR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
TOR A. Matthews	4.1	2	1.17	1	44%	1
TOR W. Nylander	3.0	2	1.05	2	37%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	2	1.10	0	33%	0
TOR J. Tavares	2.7	1	0.86	0	32%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	2	0.83	0	27%	0
TOR M. Knies	2.3	4	0.79	1	28%	1
TOR B. McMann	2.2	0	0.44	0	21%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	2	0.62	0	23%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.0	2	0.98	0	28%	0
NYR A. Fox	2.0	2	0.84	0	15%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	5	0.45	0	19%	0
TOR N. Robertson	1.6	3	0.35	0	17%	0
TOR M. Rielly	1.6	2	0.56	1	9%	0
TOR M. Maccelli	1.4	0	0.42	0	13%	0
TOR M. Domi	1.4	4	0.47	0	13%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	0	0.34	0	14%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	2	0.30	0	6%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.3	2	0.26	0	11%	0
TOR N. Roy	1.3	0	0.39	0	15%	0
TOR O. Ekman-Larsson	1.2	0	0.32	1	6%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	2	0.26	1	6%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	1	0.23	0	5%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
TOR C. Jarnkrok	1.0	1	0.31	0	13%	0
TOR J. McCabe	1.0	0	0.33	0	5%	0
TOR D. Joshua	1.0	0	0.31	0	14%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	0	0.24	0	9%	0
TOR B. Carlo	1.0	2	0.14	0	3%	0
NYR M. Rempe	1.0	3	0.25	0	11%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	0	0.23	0	11%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.9	2	0.21	0	2%	0
TOR S. Benoit	0.7	0	0.13	0	2%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.7	2	0.26	1	10%	1
TOR C. Tanev	0.6	1	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.