Game Recap: NYR 4, VAN 3, November 19, 2024

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Game Recap

NYR4

FinalTue, Nov 19, 2024Every game that night

VAN3

NYR beat VAN 4-3, with the chances close: 2.11 expected goals to 2.02. NYR outshot VAN 33 to 24. K. Kakko led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Sherwood had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. I. Shesterkin stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	2	1	1	4
VAN	2	1	0	3

1st 0:34VANQ. Hughes0.07 xG
1st 2:31NYRM. Zibanejad0.02 xG
1st 14:38NYRW. Cuylle0.14 xG
1st 17:39VANK. Sherwood0.08 xG
2nd 8:45NYRK. Kakko0.23 xG
2nd 13:02VANC. Garland0.11 xG
3rd 10:43NYRC. Kreider0.08 xG

Team Stats

NYRVAN

33Shots on goal24

2.11Expected goals2.02

57Shot attempts46

275v5 shots on goal17

0/2Power play0/3

16Hits24

14Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes6

3Giveaways14

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.11 xGVAN 2.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR33 on goal, 4 scored

VAN24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	21:31	2:43
W. Cuylle	LW	1	1	2	1	3	0	+2	0	14:36	1:17
K. Kakko	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	12:35	1:17
C. Kreider	LW	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0	19:46	2:43
R. Smith	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:21	1:17
J. Brodzinski	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	10:50	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	2	19:52	2:43
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	18:30	2:43
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:52	1:17
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	10:05	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:22	0:00
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:06	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	2	1	3	+2	0	22:06	2:43
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	19:53	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	6	0	2	-1	0	23:25	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	21:27	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	15:00	0:00
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	14:05	1:17

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	24	21	3	.875	59:38	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	20:41	4:27
C. Garland	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	20:58	4:23
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	18:20	1:25
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	7	10	0	+1	0	16:48	1:27
D. Joshua	C	0	1	1	0	5	3	0	2	13:24	0:00
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	18:49	4:25
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:56	0:10
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:47	4:12
D. Heinen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	12:54	0:09
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	10:06	0:15
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:05	1:20
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:42	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	28:17	5:39
F. Hronek	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	24:47	1:45
C. Soucy	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	14:49	0:00
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:04	0:02
E. Brannstrom	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	15:48	0:21
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	14:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Silovs	33	29	4	.879	58:21	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.0, VAN 3.0	NYR 4, VAN 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	NYR 27.0, VAN 29.4	NYR 33, VAN 24
Win chance	NYR 50%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	3	1.13	0	30%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.8	3	0.69	1	24%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	2.4	1	0.85	2	30%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.3	5	0.87	1	10%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	4	0.81	0	25%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.2	4	0.67	1	32%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	3	0.65	0	24%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.1	1	0.77	2	24%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.0	2	0.53	0	23%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.9	7	0.44	1	17%	1
VAN P. Suter	1.7	2	0.36	1	17%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.6	1	0.53	1	18%	0
NYR J. Trouba	1.6	6	0.30	0	8%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.6	1	0.37	2	16%	1
NYR A. Fox	1.5	2	0.73	2	13%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	0	0.43	1	6%	0
VAN D. Heinen	1.4	0	0.42	0	17%	0
NYR K. Kakko	1.3	3	0.35	2	15%	1
VAN N. Hoglander	1.3	1	0.31	0	16%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.3	0	0.35	0	10%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	0	0.23	1	8%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.2	0	0.31	1	10%	0
VAN D. Joshua	1.1	0	0.42	1	18%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.1	0	0.24	0	3%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.0	1	0.26	0	6%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.0	1	0.21	0	6%	0
VAN E. Brannstrom	1.0	0	0.23	0	3%	0
NYR J. Vesey	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	0	0.20	0	9%	0
VAN C. Soucy	0.9	2	0.19	1	5%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.9	2	0.22	0	5%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.8	0	0.15	0	10%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	1	0.18	0	10%	0
VAN N. Juulsen	0.6	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.