Game Recap: NYR 1, WPG 2, March 11, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR1

FinalTue, Mar 11, 2025Every game that night

WPG2

WPG beat NYR 2-1, with the chances close: 2.59 expected goals to 2.52. C. Perfetti led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. Hellebuyck stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	0	0	1
WPG	1	1	0	2

1st 5:18WPGV. Namestnikov0.14 xG
1st 11:00NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.17 xG
2nd 5:06WPGG. VilardiPP0.15 xG

Team Stats

NYRWPG

22Shots on goal24

2.52Expected goals2.59

69Shot attempts49

185v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play1/4

29Hits24

10Blocked shots21

10Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways11

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.52 xGWPG 2.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR22 on goal, 1 scored

WPG23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	20:57	3:48
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	20:39	4:00
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	0	3	2	0	6	18:11	3:30
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	23:32	0:55
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:05	1:25
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:47	3:50
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:45	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	14:21	1:05
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:41	1:07
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	9:00	0:00
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	8:12	0:00
A. Kaliyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:49	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	24:49	1:52
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:46	0:00
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	19:35	3:03
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:26	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:13	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	12:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	24	22	2	.917	57:55	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Perfetti	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	+1	0	13:02	2:49
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	23:33	6:07
G. Vilardi	C	1	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	17:34	5:55
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	2	15:05	4:06
V. Namestnikov	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	13:51	2:00
M. Scheifele	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	22:11	5:53
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:17	0:03
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	14:02	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	13:47	2:01
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:40	2:22
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	9:44	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:36	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	25:46	6:07
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	21:10	0:05
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	19:20	0:17
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	16:18	1:50
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	1	5	5	0	0	16:02	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.6, WPG 3.1	NYR 1, WPG 2
Total goals	5.7	3
Shots on goal	NYR 26.3, WPG 29.8	NYR 22, WPG 24
Win chance	WPG 59%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.3	0	1.10	1	37%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	2	0.91	1	29%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.7	2	0.86	1	27%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	3	0.72	1	24%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	1	0.63	0	22%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.2	2	0.75	0	13%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.1	2	0.98	0	34%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.1	1	0.49	0	28%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	1	0.84	1	31%	1
NYR J. Miller	1.9	0	0.80	1	25%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.9	1	0.44	0	20%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	0	0.46	0	20%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	0	0.47	0	8%	0
NYR A. Kaliyev	1.7	1	0.27	0	13%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	3	0.37	0	18%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.6	3	0.52	2	17%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.5	2	0.36	0	13%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	1	0.45	0	17%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.4	2	0.30	0	5%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	0	0.25	0	10%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.20	0	5%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.3	3	0.28	0	7%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.3	3	0.45	1	15%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.2	1	0.19	0	10%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.2	0	0.22	0	4%	0
WPG L. Schenn	1.2	1	0.15	0	3%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.1	1	0.30	0	12%	0
WPG B. Tanev	1.1	1	0.26	0	12%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	1	0.23	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	1	0.19	0	4%	0
NYR B. Othmann	1.0	3	0.12	0	8%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.0	1	0.14	0	2%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	1.0	1	0.19	0	3%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	0	0.29	0	4%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.8	1	0.15	0	8%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.8	0	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.