WSH beat NYR 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.37 expected goals to 2.38. WSH outshot NYR 46 to 19. A. Protas led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. McMichael had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. L. Thompson stopped 16 of 19.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 2.38 xGWSH 5.37 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:14 | 2:43 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:48 | 2:38 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 16:36 | 2:43 |
| F. Chytil | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:21 | 2:43 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 6:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5:01 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:25 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 24:14 | 2:43 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 20:08 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 18:35 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 45 | 41 | 4 | .911 | 58:54 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:05 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:47 | 6:12 |
| D. Strome | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 17:14 | 3:07 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:06 | 3:12 |
| N. Dowd | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:01 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 3:22 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:25 | 3:04 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:29 | 3:20 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 | 3:15 |
| M. Sgarbossa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:33 | 0:05 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:45 | 2:08 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 26:06 | 4:21 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 23:00 | 0:17 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 26:54 | 0:05 |
| D. McIlrath | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11:39 | 0:16 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 1:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 19 | 16 | 3 | .842 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.3, WSH 2.8 | NYR 3, WSH 5 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 28.8, WSH 28.6 | NYR 19, WSH 46 |
| Win chance | NYR 58% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.2 | 2 | 1.34 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.1 | 5 | 0.74 | 2 | 32% | 2 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.6 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.5 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.4 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.3 | 1 | 0.87 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.3 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.1 | 4 | 0.52 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 2.1 | 1 | 0.76 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 2.0 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 1.8 | 10 | 0.41 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| WSH A. Protas | 1.7 | 3 | 0.35 | 3 | 10% | 1 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.7 | 2 | 0.78 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.6 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.6 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.5 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.4 | 3 | 0.24 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR V. Mancini | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| WSH M. Sgarbossa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WSH D. McIlrath | 0.3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.