Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
NYR4
WSH7
WSH beat NYR 7-4, with the chances close: 4.06 expected goals to 3.36. D. Strome led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Ovechkin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. L. Thompson stopped 29 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| WSH | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
- 1st 7:00NYRC. Kreider0.03 xG
- 1st 18:46WSHD. StromePP0.30 xG
- 2nd 2:29WSHL. Eller0.06 xG
- 2nd 10:08WSHA. Mangiapane0.19 xG
- 2nd 16:26NYRS. Carrick0.20 xG
- 2nd 18:13WSHC. McMichaelPP0.24 xG
- 3rd 8:32NYRF. Chytil0.20 xG
- 3rd 10:50WSHA. Ovechkin0.05 xG
- 3rd 13:04NYRM. Zibanejad0.16 xG
- 3rd 14:00WSHA. Protas0.19 xG
- 3rd 19:22WSHT. WilsonEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
NYRWSH
33Shots on goal28
3.36Expected goals4.06
72Shot attempts59
225v5 shots on goal16
0/4Power play2/4
15Hits20
13Blocked shots22
8Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways12
1Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 3.36 xGWSH 4.06 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:42 | 5:52 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:49 | 2:57 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:54 | 1:15 |
| F. Chytil | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:26 | 1:42 |
| S. Carrick | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:10 | 0:00 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 25:10 | 6:01 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:02 | 6:04 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:17 | 4:47 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:40 | 1:52 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 27:34 | 5:36 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:28 | 2:09 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15:53 | 0:25 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quick | 27 | 21 | 6 | .778 | 57:49 | Loss |
| L. Domingue | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Strome | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:52 | 4:57 |
| T. Wilson | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:43 | 3:44 |
| A. Ovechkin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:44 | 5:53 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:03 | 1:19 |
| A. Protas | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:00 |
| P. Dubois | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:44 | 1:00 |
| N. Dowd | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| C. McMichael | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:41 | 2:14 |
| L. Eller | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Duhaime | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Vrana | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Chychrun | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:24 | 4:38 |
| M. Fehérváry | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:50 | 0:00 |
| R. Sandin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:45 | 1:19 |
| T. van Riemsdyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Carlson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:24 | 4:41 |
| M. Roy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Thompson | 33 | 29 | 4 | .879 | 59:37 | Win |
| C. Lindgren | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.0, WSH 3.2 | NYR 4, WSH 7 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 28.3, WSH 30.4 | NYR 33, WSH 28 |
| Win chance | WSH 52% | WSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH A. Ovechkin | 3.2 | 7 | 0.86 | 2 | 35% | 1 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.6 | 4 | 1.05 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.4 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| WSH T. Wilson | 2.4 | 3 | 0.65 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.3 | 5 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.3 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| WSH J. Chychrun | 2.2 | 3 | 0.52 | 2 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH C. McMichael | 2.2 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| WSH J. Carlson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.1 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.0 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| WSH A. Protas | 2.0 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| WSH D. Strome | 1.9 | 4 | 0.86 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| WSH P. Dubois | 1.9 | 4 | 0.68 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.8 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.7 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WSH J. Vrana | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WSH B. Duhaime | 1.4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WSH M. Roy | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH L. Eller | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| WSH T. Raddysh | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WSH N. Dowd | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.2 | 5 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WSH A. Mangiapane | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| WSH T. Riemsdyk | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WSH R. Sandin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WSH M. Fehérváry | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.