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Game Recap
OTT0
BOS2
BOS beat OTT 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 5.19 expected goals to 2.42. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Batherson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Korpisalo stopped 29 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 2:06BOSM. Geekie0.19 xG
- 3rd 19:55BOSD. PastrnakEN0.88 xG
Team Stats
OTTBOS
29Shots on goal26
2.42Expected goals5.19
72Shot attempts73
195v5 shots on goal22
0/4Power play0/2
20Hits27
24Blocked shots20
14Penalty minutes18
14Giveaways17
10Takeaways10
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.42 xGBOS 5.19 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:41 | 4:56 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 10 | 23:02 | 4:59 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:29 | 4:33 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:06 | 2:21 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:55 | 4:30 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:20 | 2:29 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:36 |
| M. Highmore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:00 | 2:32 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 | 2:54 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:51 | 0:00 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 29:41 | 6:20 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22:35 | 0:28 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 22:14 | 0:09 |
| N. Jensen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:33 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 57:48 | Loss |
| L. Meriläinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:41 | 3:48 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 19:21 | 1:26 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:34 | 2:31 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 2:34 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:49 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 2:33 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:57 | 1:29 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:38 |
| P. Brown | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:28 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:18 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 12 | 19:27 | 1:07 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 18:31 | 2:35 |
| M. Callahan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:12 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 29 | 29 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. DiPietro | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.8, BOS 2.9 | OTT 0, BOS 2 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 29.4, BOS 26.9 | OTT 29, BOS 26 |
| Win chance | BOS 51% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.9 | 4 | 1.13 | 2 | 42% | 1 |
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.8 | 5 | 0.83 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.5 | 4 | 0.79 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 2.3 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.2 | 6 | 0.77 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.0 | 3 | 0.85 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 2.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| OTT D. Perron | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.8 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.8 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Jones | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT M. Highmore | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 1.0 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.0 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.9 | 4 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS P. Brown | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.