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Game Recap
OTT4
FinalMon, Oct 5, 2026Every game that night
BOS1

OTT beat BOS 4-1, with the chances close: 2.57 expected goals to 2.20. T. Stützle led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Ullmark stopped 10 of 10.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
OTT2204
BOS0011
  1. 1st 7:39OTTT. StützleSH0.24 xG
  2. 1st 9:22OTTT. Stützle0.14 xG
  3. 2nd 1:06OTTD. Batherson0.23 xG
  4. 2nd 5:19OTTM. Amadio0.25 xG
  5. 3rd 3:30BOSJ. Hagens0.02 xG

Team Stats

OTTBOS
24Shots on goal19
2.57Expected goals2.20
49Shot attempts43
235v5 shots on goal13
0/4Power play0/4
32Hits34
10Blocked shots11
18Penalty minutes28
12Giveaways20
4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.57 xGBOS 2.20 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdOTT goal, 7:39OTT goal, 9:22OTT goal, 1:06OTT goal, 5:19BOS goal, 3:30

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT23 on goal, 4 scored
BOS19 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
T. StützleC213311+3018:561:53
M. AmadioRW112201+3015:440:05
S. PintoC011260+1017:560:12
D. BathersonRW101231+1015:111:54
N. CousinsC01114001010:580:07
D. CozensC0004510018:381:42
W. EklundLW0002000017:530:04
F. ZetterlundLW0002400016:420:00
C. GirouxRW0001100014:031:52
W. FoegeleLW000020+2212:130:00
S. HallidayC000011-109:390:04
H. HodgsonRW000030-125:350:08
J. SpenceD000102+1024:490:10
T. ChabotD000111+1224:130:11
T. KlevenD000102+2023:210:04
N. MatinpaloD000100+2220:150:04
C. YakemchukD0001000014:581:55
C. CrottyD0000100010:560:04
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Ullmark101001.00040:00Win
S. Ersson981.88920:00

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HagensC101211-1213:552:14
D. PastrnakRW000250-2021:003:53
M. GeekieC000311-2020:584:04
P. ZachaC000112-1020:023:38
F. MintenC000110-2016:161:53
E. LindholmC000210-2215:323:33
J. PeterkaRW000011-2015:202:07
C. MittelstadtC000000-1012:561:42
M. KhusnutdinovC0000300011:320:00
M. PoitrasC000020+1211:280:00
T. JeannotLW000160+11010:470:00
M. KastelicC0000400010:190:00
M. LohreiD000202-1021:012:25
N. ZadorovD000140-11219:390:00
C. CliftonD0001110019:170:00
H. LindholmD000200-2018:462:06
F. BrunetD0001030018:431:15
W. BorgenD0000300016:250:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Swayman24204.83360:00Loss
M. DiPietro000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1W. Eklund17:28F. Zetterlund16:42D. Cozens16:15
Line 2T. Stützle12:54D. Batherson13:10W. Foegele11:07
Line 3M. Amadio11:35S. Pinto14:12C. Giroux10:54
Line 4N. Cousins10:32S. Halliday9:35H. Hodgson5:27
Pair 1T. Chabot21:19J. Spence21:16
Pair 2C. Yakemchuk12:12T. Kleven19:01
Pair 3C. Crotty9:59N. Matinpalo16:37

BOS

Line 1M. Geekie16:50P. Zacha14:10D. Pastrnak15:55
Line 2F. Minten13:23M. Khusnutdinov11:31M. Kastelic10:12
Line 3T. Jeannot10:47M. Poitras11:17J. Hagens11:31
Line 4E. Lindholm11:25J. Peterka12:17C. Mittelstadt11:14
Pair 1N. Zadorov18:15C. Clifton17:57
Pair 2M. Lohrei17:42F. Brunet16:22
Pair 3H. Lindholm14:47W. Borgen14:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 18 overs hit (44%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
BOS D. Pastrnak3.5+136-1452Under
OTT D. Batherson2.5+130-1442Under
OTT D. Cozens2.5+135-1604Over
OTT T. Stützle2.5+145-1603Over
OTT C. Giroux1.5-105-1401Under
OTT C. Yakemchuk1.5+110-1601Under
BOS E. Lindholm1.5+120-1252Over
OTT F. Zetterlund1.5-110-1052Over
BOS H. Lindholm1.5+145-1602Over
BOS J. Peterka1.5-180+1300Under
OTT J. Spence1.5+100-1451Under
BOS M. Geekie1.5-152+1303Over
BOS P. Zacha1.5-130+1051Under
OTT S. Pinto1.5-170+1362Over
OTT T. Chabot1.5-182+1381Under
OTT T. Kleven1.5+100-1451Under
OTT W. Eklund1.5-195+1702Over
OTT W. Foegele1.5-105+1050Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 3.1, BOS 3.1OTT 4, BOS 1
Total goals6.15
Shots on goalOTT 29.8, BOS 25.5OTT 24, BOS 19
Win chanceBOS 50%OTT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BOS D. Pastrnak3.221.17037%0
OTT D. Cozens2.640.59022%0
OTT T. Stützle2.530.92327%2
OTT D. Batherson2.320.75126%1
OTT S. Pinto2.220.55123%0
OTT T. Chabot2.110.59014%0
BOS M. Geekie2.030.72029%0
OTT C. Giroux1.910.56018%0
BOS J. Peterka1.900.58024%0
OTT W. Eklund1.920.50014%0
OTT J. Spence1.810.4709%0
BOS P. Zacha1.710.69022%0
BOS E. Lindholm1.620.58021%0
OTT W. Foegele1.500.29015%0
OTT C. Yakemchuk1.510.4107%0
OTT F. Zetterlund1.520.29012%0
BOS F. Minten1.410.37017%0
BOS J. Hagens1.320.30113%1
OTT T. Kleven1.310.2405%0
OTT S. Halliday1.300.35012%0
OTT M. Amadio1.320.40218%1
BOS H. Lindholm1.320.3707%0
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.200.51016%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.110.2707%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.100.25011%0
BOS M. Poitras1.100.35011%0
OTT N. Cousins0.910.2118%0
BOS M. Lohrei0.920.3508%0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.900.33013%0
BOS T. Jeannot0.810.22010%0
BOS W. Borgen0.800.2205%0
BOS C. Clifton0.810.2004%0
OTT C. Crotty0.800.1403%0
OTT N. Matinpalo0.810.1002%0
OTT H. Hodgson0.700.1306%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.