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Game Recap
OTT3
CAR0
OTT beat CAR 3-0, with the chances close: 2.28 expected goals to 2.25. CAR outshot OTT 32 to 22. S. Pinto led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Burns had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. L. Ullmark stopped 32 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Team Stats
OTTCAR
22Shots on goal32
2.28Expected goals2.25
35Shot attempts69
195v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play0/2
26Hits29
16Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways17
10Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.28 xGCAR 2.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Pinto | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +3 | 0 | 17:10 | 1:51 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:10 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 15:20 | 0:14 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 | 2:11 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 2:16 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 2:05 |
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 2:09 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 1:30 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 1:37 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:43 | 1:40 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Jensen | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 23:32 | 0:11 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 24:20 | 1:45 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:37 | 2:13 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| T. Kleven | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:04 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:15 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 32 | 32 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 20:54 | 2:31 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:06 | 2:31 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 2:28 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:35 | 2:28 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:48 | 1:30 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 1:31 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:09 | 1:30 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:09 | 1:31 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:57 | 1:25 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:08 | 2:35 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 21 | 19 | 2 | .905 | 57:16 | Loss |
| D. Tokarski | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 2.7, CAR 3.6 | OTT 3, CAR 0 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 26.8, CAR 32.2 | OTT 22, CAR 32 |
| Win chance | CAR 63% | OTT won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 3.5 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.9 | 3 | 1.00 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.8 | 0 | 0.91 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 3 | 1.13 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.3 | 5 | 0.84 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.0 | 5 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 2.0 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT J. Norris | 1.9 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.8 | 3 | 0.40 | 2 | 16% | 2 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.8 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.7 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.7 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 3 | 0.71 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.4 | 3 | 0.35 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| OTT A. Gaudette | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| OTT N. Gregor | 1.2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| OTT T. Hamonic | 1.0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| OTT N. Jensen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 2 | 4% | 1 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT T. Kleven | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT J. Bernard-Docker | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| OTT Z. Ostapchuk | 0.4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.