Game Recap: OTT 3, CAR 4, February 3, 2026

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Game Recap

OTT3

FinalTue, Feb 3, 2026Every game that night

CAR4

CAR beat OTT 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.03 expected goals to 3.04. OTT outshot CAR 27 to 19. S. Aho led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Bussi stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	1	1	1	3
CAR	1	2	1	4

1st 2:46OTTS. Halliday0.09 xG
1st 17:49CARS. Aho0.25 xG
2nd 12:39CARS. JarvisPP0.11 xG
2nd 15:41CARS. Jarvis0.22 xG
2nd 16:21OTTT. StützlePP0.08 xG
3rd 4:57OTTJ. SandersonPP0.07 xG
3rd 14:53CARJ. Staal0.14 xG

Team Stats

OTTCAR

27Shots on goal19

3.04Expected goals2.03

56Shot attempts49

225v5 shots on goal17

2/3Power play1/2

20Hits27

16Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways11

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.04 xGCAR 2.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT27 on goal, 3 scored

CAR19 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Cozens	C	0	2	2	1	3	0	0	0	19:16	2:54
T. Stützle	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	-3	0	18:35	3:07
D. Batherson	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-2	0	18:29	2:44
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	8:57	0:00
S. Halliday	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	2	7:12	0:41
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	18:58	0:42
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	18:43	0:00
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	18:28	2:45
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:04	0:00
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	14:58	0:00
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:25	0:19
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	10:26	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	1	1	2	2	0	0	-3	0	23:15	2:47
J. Spence	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	16:27	0:32
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	21:57	0:39
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	19:55	0:00
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:43	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	16:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Reimer	19	15	4	.789	58:38	Loss
L. Ullmark	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	2	3	2	2	0	+2	0	16:50	1:24
S. Jarvis	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	+2	0	15:50	1:24
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	1	6	0	+1	0	17:33	0:13
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	16:51	1:11
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+2	2	16:26	1:24
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	17:54	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:06	0:42
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:31	0:42
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:52	0:42
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	10:44	0:42
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:34	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	2	8:30	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	22:52	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	21:51	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	20:51	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	0	20:37	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:57	1:24
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	15:45	0:42

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
B. Bussi	27	24	3	.889	60:00	Win
F. Andersen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1S. Pinto17:35M. Amadio17:54N. Cousins14:58

Line 2D. Cozens15:00R. Greig14:58B. Tkachuk14:21

Line 3D. Batherson14:23T. Stützle13:22C. Giroux11:11

Line 4L. Eller8:38F. Zetterlund10:26S. Halliday6:31

Pair 1N. Jensen17:43T. Chabot20:55

Pair 2J. Sanderson17:49A. Zub18:12

Pair 3J. Spence15:55T. Kleven15:39

CAR

Line 1L. Stankoven15:49J. Blake16:24T. Hall15:10

Line 2J. Staal14:19J. Martinook14:33N. Ehlers14:35

Line 3S. Aho13:58S. Jarvis13:23A. Svechnikov14:45

Line 4M. Jankowski9:18J. Kotkaniemi8:34W. Carrier8:30

Pair 1K. Miller21:50S. Walker20:47

Pair 2J. Slavin16:54J. Chatfield17:05

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere14:33A. Nikishin15:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.8, CAR 3.5	OTT 3, CAR 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	OTT 24.2, CAR 28.6	OTT 27, CAR 19
Win chance	CAR 61%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	2.9	4	0.67	0	25%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.7	4	0.94	2	34%	2
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	0	0.93	1	30%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.4	1	0.86	1	29%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.3	2	1.05	3	34%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.0	3	0.84	1	25%	1
OTT D. Cozens	1.8	1	0.51	2	18%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.8	1	0.26	0	8%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.8	2	0.53	0	22%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.8	0	0.47	0	18%	0
OTT D. Batherson	1.7	3	0.65	1	22%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	2	0.72	0	13%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.7	2	0.53	2	10%	1
CAR J. Blake	1.6	1	0.50	0	21%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.6	3	0.52	0	20%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	0	0.41	0	15%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	1	0.50	1	19%	1
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	2	0.37	0	8%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.4	1	0.30	0	9%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.4	1	0.43	1	9%	0
OTT T. Chabot	1.4	1	0.39	0	8%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.3	0	0.54	0	17%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.3	0	0.45	0	16%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.2	0	0.35	0	9%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.2	2	0.40	0	18%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.2	1	0.27	0	12%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.1	0	0.26	0	13%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.1	3	0.29	0	11%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.1	0	0.31	0	11%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.9	1	0.16	0	3%	0
OTT J. Spence	0.9	1	0.26	1	4%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	0.9	0	0.30	0	14%	0
OTT S. Halliday	0.9	1	0.32	1	9%	1
OTT A. Zub	0.9	1	0.23	0	5%	0
OTT L. Eller	0.7	1	0.17	1	7%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.6	0	0.18	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.