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Game Recap
OTT0
CAR2
CAR beat OTT 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.30 expected goals to 2.52. L. Stankoven led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Stankoven had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. F. Andersen stopped 22 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 2:11CARL. Stankoven0.13 xG
- 3rd 7:15CART. Hall0.26 xG
Team Stats
OTTCAR
22Shots on goal29
2.52Expected goals4.30
46Shot attempts61
135v5 shots on goal19
0/4Power play0/5
39Hits57
13Blocked shots11
19Penalty minutes15
15Giveaways14
4Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
OTT 2.52 xGCAR 4.30 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
OTT Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Stützle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 6:08 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:58 | 6:07 |
| C. Giroux | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:15 | 3:56 |
| B. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17:41 | 6:05 |
| D. Batherson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 5:26 |
| S. Pinto | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 16:51 | 2:31 |
| M. Amadio | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 0:02 |
| R. Greig | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:03 |
| N. Cousins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:49 | 0:03 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:26 | 1:44 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:48 | 1:29 |
| L. Eller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 27:25 | 5:39 |
| T. Chabot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 26:39 | 2:20 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:40 | 0:21 |
| N. Matinpalo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8:26 | 0:00 |
| A. Zub | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:44 | 0:06 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Ullmark | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 56:49 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:15 | 3:18 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:39 | 3:13 |
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:06 | 2:53 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 4:46 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 4:41 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:38 | 5:40 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16:20 | 2:05 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 4:43 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:24 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:06 | 0:07 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:13 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:13 | 4:45 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17:59 | 0:17 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:42 | 0:20 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:31 | 2:54 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 22 | 22 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
OTT
Line 1C. Giroux11:04T. Stützle14:36D. Batherson10:36
Line 2D. Cozens11:40B. Tkachuk10:25R. Greig10:46
Line 3M. Amadio12:17S. Pinto11:21N. Cousins11:46
Line 4W. Foegele8:19F. Zetterlund9:33L. Eller6:37
Pair 2N. Matinpalo12:55D. Gilbert8:08
Pair 3A. Zub7:38J. Sanderson16:03
CAR
Line 1L. Stankoven12:21J. Blake12:57T. Hall12:09
Line 2S. Aho12:30S. Jarvis12:37A. Svechnikov10:53
Line 3J. Martinook10:46N. Ehlers12:00J. Staal9:45
Line 4M. Jankowski8:35E. Robinson6:25W. Carrier6:51
Pair 2J. Slavin14:15J. Chatfield14:53
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere13:28A. Nikishin13:57
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | OTT 3.0, CAR 3.3 | OTT 0, CAR 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | OTT 24.6, CAR 28.6 | OTT 22, CAR 29 |
| Win chance | CAR 56% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT B. Tkachuk | 2.8 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.2 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT D. Cozens | 2.2 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.2 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.1 | 6 | 0.70 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.0 | 6 | 0.54 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.9 | 0 | 0.57 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| OTT T. Stützle | 1.9 | 4 | 0.86 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| OTT S. Pinto | 1.8 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 5 | 0.63 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| OTT D. Batherson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| OTT J. Sanderson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| OTT T. Chabot | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT R. Greig | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT W. Foegele | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT J. Spence | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT C. Giroux | 1.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT F. Zetterlund | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| OTT M. Amadio | 1.1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| OTT N. Cousins | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| OTT A. Zub | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| OTT L. Eller | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| OTT N. Matinpalo | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| OTT D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.