Game Recap: OTT 6, CBJ 3, December 11, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT6

FinalThu, Dec 11, 2025Every game that night

CBJ3

OTT beat CBJ 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.05 expected goals to 1.91. M. Amadio led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Perron had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. L. Ullmark stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	4	1	1	6
CBJ	1	2	0	3

1st 6:58OTTD. Perron0.13 xG
1st 8:11OTTD. Batherson0.14 xG
1st 14:55OTTT. StützlePP0.09 xG
1st 18:04CBJB. Jenner0.17 xG
1st 19:26OTTM. Amadio0.18 xG
2nd 3:02CBJD. Fabbro0.04 xG
2nd 8:10CBJD. VoronkovPP0.12 xG
2nd 17:59OTTT. Stützle0.11 xG
3rd 18:37OTTC. GirouxEN0.62 xG

Team Stats

OTTCBJ

29Shots on goal27

3.05Expected goals1.91

49Shot attempts59

275v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play1/1

18Hits23

21Blocked shots12

0Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways14

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 3.05 xGCBJ 1.91 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT29 on goal, 6 scored

CBJ27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
M. Amadio	RW	1	2	3	3	3	2	+3	19:35	0:07
D. Batherson	RW	1	2	3	2	0	0	+1	18:27	1:50
D. Cozens	C	0	3	3	3	1	0	+1	17:26	1:50
T. Stützle	C	2	0	2	4	1	2	0	18:55	2:11
C. Giroux	RW	1	1	2	1	2	0	+3	18:29	0:49
D. Perron	LW	1	1	2	5	0	1	+2	14:53	0:50
R. Greig	C	0	1	1	2	2	2	+2	19:13	0:40
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	17:08	2:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	15:56	0:51
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	9:12	0:14
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	7:21	0:00
K. MacDermid	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4:59	0:00
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+3	24:25	0:04
J. Sanderson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+3	27:17	1:57
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	17:12	0:13
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	17:01	0:54
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	15:56	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	15:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	27	24	3	.889	60:00	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Jenner	C	1	1	2	2	4	1	+2	0	14:38	0:00
K. Marchenko	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-3	0	19:12	0:59
D. Voronkov	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-4	0	18:45	0:59
A. Fantilli	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	18:26	0:59
K. Johnson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	13:19	0:00
S. Monahan	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-4	0	18:54	0:59
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	7	1	-2	2	16:21	0:00
C. Sillinger	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	14:56	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	14:29	0:00
B. Gaunce	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:20	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:44	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:29	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	-2	0	26:49	0:59
D. Fabbro	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:22	0:00
I. Provorov	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	25:48	0:00
D. Mateychuk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	20:39	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	19:14	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	5	2	3	.400	14:55
J. Greaves	23	21	2	.913	43:18	Loss

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio18:33R. Greig16:57C. Giroux16:18

Line 2T. Stützle15:30F. Zetterlund15:05B. Tkachuk14:16

Line 3D. Batherson15:43D. Cozens15:32D. Perron13:59

Line 4L. Eller6:47N. Cousins8:58K. MacDermid4:59

Pair 1J. Sanderson22:34A. Zub21:35

Pair 2J. Spence16:03T. Kleven16:55

Pair 3N. Jensen15:56N. Matinpalo15:40

CBJ

Line 1K. Marchenko16:26D. Voronkov15:59S. Monahan15:08

Line 2C. Coyle13:56C. Sillinger14:56M. Wood13:31

Line 3B. Jenner13:15A. Fantilli15:36K. Johnson13:15

Line 4B. Gaunce11:32E. Chinakhov9:29I. Lundestrom9:38

Pair 1Z. Werenski23:39I. Provorov23:28

Pair 2D. Severson19:14D. Mateychuk18:41

Pair 3B. Smith10:28D. Fabbro13:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.0, CBJ 3.1	OTT 6, CBJ 3
Total goals	6.1	9
Shots on goal	OTT 29.1, CBJ 28.6	OTT 29, CBJ 27
Win chance	CBJ 51%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	4.1	2	0.81	0	32%	0
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.3	2	0.87	2	18%	0
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.9	3	0.84	1	34%	0
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.8	3	0.84	1	31%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.6	1	0.72	0	14%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.6	2	0.83	3	28%	1
OTT D. Cozens	2.5	3	0.65	3	24%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.5	4	0.96	2	29%	2
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.1	3	0.65	1	27%	1
CBJ S. Monahan	2.0	2	0.76	0	24%	0
CBJ M. Wood	2.0	3	0.41	0	18%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	2.0	1	0.48	0	16%	0
CBJ B. Jenner	2.0	2	0.49	2	22%	1
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.9	1	0.41	0	18%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.8	1	0.65	2	21%	1
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	2	0.43	0	9%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	2	0.36	1	15%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.5	3	0.43	3	20%	1
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	1	0.48	1	18%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.5	1	0.46	0	7%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	1	0.57	0	20%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.5	5	0.47	2	19%	1
OTT T. Kleven	1.3	1	0.20	0	4%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.3	0	0.24	0	12%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.3	0	0.27	0	12%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	1	0.38	0	9%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	1	0.35	0	10%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.1	0	0.24	0	11%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	2	0.29	1	7%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	0	0.16	0	3%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	0.9	2	0.20	1	5%	1
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.23	0	10%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.8	1	0.20	0	4%	0
CBJ B. Smith	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0
OTT K. MacDermid	0.3	0	0.05	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.