Game Recap: OTT 3, CGY 2 (OT), December 19, 2024

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Game Recap

OTT3

Final/OTThu, Dec 19, 2024Every game that night

CGY2

OTT beat CGY 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.52 expected goals to 3.26. M. Coronato led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). R. Greig had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. L. Ullmark stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
OTT	1	0	1	1	3
CGY	1	0	1	0	2

1st 12:14CGYB. Coleman0.24 xG
1st 19:00OTTN. Cousins0.02 xG
3rd 6:24OTTR. GreigSH0.05 xG
3rd 7:16CGYJ. HuberdeauPP0.25 xG
OT 0:55OTTB. Tkachuk0.37 xG

Team Stats

OTTCGY

29Shots on goal32

2.52Expected goals3.26

54Shot attempts77

205v5 shots on goal25

0/3Power play1/2

27Hits30

22Blocked shots9

9Penalty minutes11

15Giveaways13

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.52 xGCGY 3.26 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT29 on goal, 3 scored

CGY31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:46	4:07
R. Greig	C	1	0	1	6	2	0	+2	0	16:00	2:22
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	4	3	1	0	0	15:29	1:32
N. Cousins	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	5	13:58	0:00
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	17:18	3:54
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	17:15	2:40
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	17:05	3:23
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	16:00	1:58
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	15:10	0:10
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	13:00	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	11:18	1:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	10:23	2:23
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	+1	0	23:35	3:38
T. Hamonic	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	0	19:05	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	22:22	2:22
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:49	0:31
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	0	14:56	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	32	30	2	.938	60:55	Win
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	17:18	1:52
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	-1	0	21:57	1:52
B. Coleman	LW	1	0	1	2	4	1	0	0	18:08	1:40
C. Zary	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	16:12	1:52
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	2	19:28	1:40
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	9	1	-1	0	17:07	1:40
J. Pelletier	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:31	0:00
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	4	16:18	1:39
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:22	1:52
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:35	0:00
W. Duehr	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	6:10	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	6:04	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	21:30	0:01
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	3	4	1	-1	0	24:20	1:32
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	23:16	2:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:44	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:40	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	5	15:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	29	26	3	.897	60:55	OT loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.1, CGY 3.2	OTT 3, CGY 2
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	OTT 29.9, CGY 30.2	OTT 29, CGY 32
Win chance	CGY 51%	OTT won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.8	4	0.92	1	33%	1
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	5	0.84	0	30%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	4	0.55	0	20%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.3	3	0.88	0	28%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	2	0.56	1	25%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	1	0.49	2	21%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.1	0	0.69	0	31%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.1	3	0.56	0	13%	0
OTT T. Chabot	2.1	1	0.51	0	10%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.0	2	0.90	1	25%	0
OTT S. Pinto	1.9	1	0.46	0	19%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.9	3	0.53	0	25%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	5	0.81	1	23%	1
OTT J. Sanderson	1.8	2	0.45	1	7%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	0	0.54	0	12%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.8	0	0.45	0	14%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.7	1	0.66	0	22%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.6	3	0.50	1	19%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.5	1	0.30	1	11%	1
OTT A. Gaudette	1.4	0	0.40	0	18%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.4	0	0.39	0	18%	0
OTT T. Hamonic	1.3	3	0.18	1	5%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.3	2	0.22	0	10%	0
CGY J. Pelletier	1.2	2	0.28	0	11%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.1	1	0.31	0	5%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.1	6	0.31	1	13%	1
CGY B. Pachal	1.1	0	0.15	0	4%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	2	0.28	1	4%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.0	1	0.25	0	7%	0
CGY W. Duehr	0.9	0	0.25	0	11%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.9	0	0.16	0	9%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	1	0.15	0	9%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.8	1	0.11	0	3%	0
OTT J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	1	0.14	0	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	0	0.13	0	3%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	0	0.16	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.