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Game Recap
OTT4
Final/OTWed, Mar 5, 2025Every game that night
CHI3

OTT beat CHI 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.64 expected goals to 1.95. J. Norris led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Ullmark stopped 17 of 20.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
OTT21014
CHI20103
  1. 1st 2:25OTTB. Tkachuk0.06 xG
  2. 1st 11:38CHIR. Donato0.28 xG
  3. 1st 12:22CHIT. TeravainenPP0.11 xG
  4. 1st 14:09OTTD. Perron0.40 xG
  5. 2nd 10:29OTTJ. Norris0.04 xG
  6. 3rd 1:47CHIC. Smith0.31 xG
  7. OT 0:46OTTT. Stützle0.38 xG

Team Stats

OTTCHI
26Shots on goal20
2.64Expected goals1.95
56Shot attempts48
235v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play1/1
17Hits19
13Blocked shots10
2Penalty minutes2
18Giveaways7
6Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.64 xGCHI 1.95 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdOTOTT goal, 2:25CHI goal, 11:38CHI goal, 12:22OTT goal, 14:09OTT goal, 10:29CHI goal, 1:47OTT goal, 0:46

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT26 on goal, 4 scored
CHI20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. BathersonRW022120+2016:471:10
J. NorrisC112110+1015:020:44
T. StützleC101230+1019:131:16
B. TkachukLW101230+1218:361:15
D. PerronLW101130+1016:050:50
M. AmadioRW0001000017:340:00
C. GirouxRW0000010016:581:10
S. PintoC0003120016:500:26
R. GreigC0002110015:520:31
A. GaudetteRW0001000011:370:24
M. HighmoreC000200-109:220:00
N. GregorLW000111008:350:00
J. SandersonD0222020023:172:00
A. ZubD011212+1021:510:00
N. JensenD000201+1022:360:14
T. HamonicD000012+1021:040:00
N. MatinpaloD0002000016:200:00
T. ChabotD0001010014:070:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Ullmark20173.85060:46Win
A. Forsberg000–0:00

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. DonatoC101300-2018:290:32
P. MaroonLW011200+1015:330:00
T. TeravainenC101110-2215:000:32
C. SmithC101140+1014:170:00
T. BertuzziLW0110010013:530:32
L. SlaggertLW011110+1011:020:00
C. BedardC000200-1020:230:32
F. NazarC000001-1019:190:00
I. MikheyevRW000210-1016:260:00
L. ReichelLW0000010015:070:00
C. DachC000021-1013:190:00
A. AthanasiouC000010006:580:00
A. VlasicD011200-1021:530:32
A. MartinezD0000110021:400:00
E. Del MastroD0001100021:220:00
C. MurphyD0003320020:560:00
W. KaiserD000131-1019:250:00
L. CrevierD000112-1015:160:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Soderblom26224.84660:46OT loss
S. Knight000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 3.3, CHI 2.7OTT 4, CHI 3
Total goals6.07
Shots on goalOTT 32.0, CHI 25.8OTT 26, CHI 20
Win chanceOTT 58%OTT won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT B. Tkachuk4.620.97136%1
CHI R. Donato2.630.74127%1
CHI C. Bedard2.620.88027%0
OTT T. Stützle2.621.12131%1
OTT D. Batherson2.510.85228%0
OTT J. Sanderson2.420.64210%0
OTT T. Chabot2.410.58011%0
OTT C. Giroux2.300.83027%0
OTT S. Pinto2.130.54022%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi2.000.65126%0
OTT D. Perron2.010.58123%1
OTT J. Norris2.010.65231%1
CHI I. Mikheyev1.920.45021%0
OTT R. Greig1.820.46020%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.710.76124%1
CHI F. Nazar1.700.49017%0
CHI C. Smith1.610.31115%1
OTT M. Amadio1.510.45021%0
CHI A. Athanasiou1.500.34016%0
OTT A. Gaudette1.310.31016%0
OTT N. Gregor1.310.20010%0
CHI C. Dach1.200.36013%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.220.3114%0
CHI C. Murphy1.230.2606%0
CHI L. Slaggert1.210.27113%0
OTT M. Highmore1.220.27010%0
OTT A. Zub1.220.3016%0
OTT N. Matinpalo1.120.0502%0
CHI A. Martinez1.100.2907%0
OTT T. Hamonic1.100.1404%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.110.1904%0
CHI P. Maroon1.020.2619%0
CHI L. Reichel1.000.30011%0
OTT N. Jensen0.920.2604%0
CHI L. Crevier0.910.1605%0
CHI E. Mastro0.710.2508%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.