Game Recap: OTT 3, CHI 7, October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT3

FinalTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

CHI7

CHI beat OTT 7-3, with the chances close: 2.71 expected goals to 2.29. C. Bedard scored three for CHI. M. Grzelcyk had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. S. Knight stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	3	0	3
CHI	3	1	3	7

1st 6:47CHIC. Dach0.20 xG
1st 12:06CHIL. Crevier0.02 xG
1st 17:53CHIC. BedardPP0.07 xG
2nd 2:58CHIC. Bedard0.07 xG
2nd 4:58OTTJ. Sanderson0.04 xG
2nd 7:09OTTM. Amadio0.14 xG
2nd 8:31OTTT. Stützle0.09 xG
3rd 3:46CHIC. Bedard0.04 xG
3rd 8:24CHIR. Donato0.15 xG
3rd 12:44CHIF. NazarEN0.96 xG

Team Stats

OTTCHI

24Shots on goal26

2.29Expected goals2.71

59Shot attempts55

195v5 shots on goal24

0/4Power play1/1

32Hits34

17Blocked shots15

16Penalty minutes20

8Giveaways13

3Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.29 xGCHI 2.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT24 on goal, 3 scored

CHI26 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Batherson	RW	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	0	17:54	4:21
T. Stützle	C	1	1	2	1	2	0	+1	2	17:14	3:02
M. Amadio	RW	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	15:13	0:00
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	19:08	4:06
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-2	0	16:54	3:55
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-2	2	16:37	4:05
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	16:36	4:03
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	16:20	4:04
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	15:19	3:53
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	13:30	0:52
N. Cousins	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	12	11:44	0:00
O. Lycksell	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-3	0	11:40	0:00
J. Sanderson	D	1	0	1	2	0	4	-1	0	22:08	4:20
A. Zub	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	-1	0	17:45	0:07
N. Matinpalo	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	15:19	0:00
T. Chabot	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	25:03	3:40
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:08	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	4	4	-1	0	15:03	0:12

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	25	19	6	.760	59:09	Loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	3	1	4	5	0	1	+2	0	16:25	0:16
F. Nazar	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+1	0	17:33	0:16
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	14:23	0:16
N. Foligno	LW	0	2	2	0	4	2	+2	0	13:42	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	17:38	0:00
C. Dach	C	1	0	1	2	6	2	+1	0	17:03	0:00
R. Donato	C	1	0	1	3	6	0	-1	0	16:41	0:00
R. Greene	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	15:07	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:10	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	14	14:22	0:16
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	10:31	0:00
L. Crevier	D	1	1	2	1	3	1	+1	0	15:53	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	21:04	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	17:37	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	13:32	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	21:25	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	6	16:01	0:16
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	14:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	24	21	3	.875	60:00	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio15:13S. Pinto14:40C. Giroux12:16

Line 2D. Batherson13:22T. Stützle14:01N. Cousins11:33

Line 3D. Perron12:32D. Cozens12:59R. Greig11:10

Line 4L. Eller12:33O. Lycksell11:40F. Zetterlund12:38

Pair 1N. Jensen16:57T. Chabot21:12

Pair 2J. Sanderson17:32A. Zub17:22

Pair 3N. Matinpalo15:14T. Kleven14:51

CHI

Line 1R. Greene15:05C. Bedard16:06A. Burakovsky14:07

Line 2T. Teravainen14:01F. Nazar13:26T. Bertuzzi14:06

Line 3R. Donato16:30J. Dickinson13:20C. Dach16:52

Line 4N. Foligno9:54S. Lafferty10:31

Pair 1A. Vlasic15:51S. Rinzel15:45

Pair 2M. Grzelcyk17:35A. Levshunov13:28

Pair 3W. Kaiser18:29L. Crevier12:35

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAndre Burakovsky OTT First game back in Chicago, his team until Apr 20262 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.1, CHI 2.9	OTT 3, CHI 7
Total goals	6.1	10
Shots on goal	OTT 28.8, CHI 24.9	OTT 24, CHI 26
Win chance	OTT 53%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	5	0.92	4	28%	3
OTT D. Cozens	2.4	0	0.62	0	22%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.3	1	0.64	0	27%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.2	3	0.66	1	26%	1
CHI F. Nazar	2.2	2	0.76	2	28%	1
OTT T. Stützle	2.1	1	0.83	2	25%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	2	0.69	2	24%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	2.0	2	0.55	1	9%	1
OTT T. Chabot	1.9	3	0.54	0	11%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	3	0.65	0	26%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.8	3	0.35	0	16%	0
OTT D. Perron	1.7	0	0.54	0	22%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.7	0	0.58	2	20%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.7	2	0.47	0	8%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.6	3	0.44	0	17%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.6	2	0.62	0	20%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.6	0	0.79	0	24%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.4	0	0.46	2	17%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.4	1	0.33	0	14%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	1	0.39	1	19%	1
OTT N. Cousins	1.3	1	0.28	0	11%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.2	2	0.34	1	12%	1
CHI J. Dickinson	1.1	1	0.33	1	16%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.1	0	0.16	0	4%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.0	0	0.26	1	5%	0
OTT O. Lycksell	1.0	0	0.25	0	8%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.9	2	0.25	0	4%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.9	2	0.11	1	3%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.9	2	0.25	1	3%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	0.8	1	0.24	1	3%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.8	4	0.24	1	1%	0
CHI S. Lafferty	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.7	1	0.13	2	4%	1
CHI R. Greene	0.6	0	0.24	1	14%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.