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Game Recap
OTT2
FinalThu, Jan 8, 2026Every game that night
COL8

COL beat OTT 8-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.93 expected goals to 2.15. J. Manson led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). J. Manson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. S. Wedgewood stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
OTT0112
COL2608
  1. 1st 10:11COLJ. Manson0.03 xG
  2. 1st 17:14COLN. MacKinnon0.14 xG
  3. 2nd 2:35COLC. Makar0.03 xG
  4. 2nd 5:08OTTS. Pinto0.05 xG
  5. 2nd 11:46COLM. NecasPP0.08 xG
  6. 2nd 12:03COLB. Burns0.01 xG
  7. 2nd 14:23COLB. NelsonPP0.17 xG
  8. 2nd 16:48COLJ. Manson0.04 xG
  9. 2nd 18:04COLB. Nelson0.11 xG
  10. 3rd 7:03OTTB. TkachukSH0.31 xG

Team Stats

OTTCOL
31Shots on goal34
2.15Expected goals2.93
66Shot attempts61
265v5 shots on goal24
0/3Power play2/6
38Hits12
14Blocked shots21
42Penalty minutes16
7Giveaways9
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.15 xGCOL 2.93 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdCOL goal, 10:11COL goal, 17:14COL goal, 2:35OTT goal, 5:08COL goal, 11:46COL goal, 12:03COL goal, 14:23COL goal, 16:48COL goal, 18:04OTT goal, 7:03

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT31 on goal, 2 scored
COL32 on goal, 8 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. PintoC101300-1418:103:00
C. GirouxRW011110-1017:262:18
B. TkachukLW101750-1215:043:25
T. StützleC000010-2517:073:13
R. GreigC00022001216:301:42
D. BathersonRW000300-1015:153:08
D. CozensC000340-1014:022:31
M. AmadioRW000011-1213:540:03
D. PerronLW000131-1013:412:13
F. ZetterlundLW000150-1012:460:52
L. EllerC000111-1011:100:00
N. CousinsC000021-21210:440:09
J. SandersonD011232-2020:293:46
T. KlevenD011153+1519:010:00
T. ChabotD000221-3019:472:10
N. MatinpaloD000021+1019:400:00
A. ZubD000002-3018:300:00
J. SpenceD000411-2017:200:25
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Meriläinen18153.83342:35Loss
M. Sogaard16115.68817:25

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. MacKinnonC1345010017:144:41
B. NelsonC213200+1016:094:20
R. ColtonC033420+3015:144:09
M. NecasC112210+2018:334:44
J. DruryC011202+1016:160:09
Z. BardakovC011012+1011:430:00
A. LehkonenLW000400-1017:144:44
P. KellyC0002120017:060:08
V. NichushkinRW000101+2015:033:55
V. OlofssonLW0000000014:034:07
G. BrindleyC0000010013:534:05
I. IvanC000000+109:370:00
J. MansonD224534+5719:252:25
C. MakarD1231110019:504:52
B. BurnsD101513+2020:231:47
I. SolovyovD011021+2017:490:03
S. MalinskiD0111000016:190:00
S. GirardD000003+1918:090:16
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Wedgewood31292.93560:00Win
T. Miner000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1D. Batherson12:07D. Cozens11:31D. Perron11:28
Line 2S. Pinto12:47R. Greig11:36C. Giroux10:15
Line 3L. Eller11:10F. Zetterlund11:54N. Cousins10:35
Line 4B. Tkachuk9:51T. Stützle10:29M. Amadio12:17
Pair 1T. Chabot17:10J. Spence16:55
Pair 2N. Matinpalo16:06T. Kleven15:06
Pair 3A. Zub13:36J. Sanderson11:47

COL

Line 1M. Necas13:49N. MacKinnon12:33A. Lehkonen10:48
Line 2P. Kelly14:28J. Drury12:54V. Olofsson9:56
Line 3V. Nichushkin9:47R. Colton11:05B. Nelson9:40
Line 4Z. Bardakov11:18I. Ivan9:37G. Brindley9:48
Pair 1C. Makar13:19S. Malinski13:51
Pair 2B. Burns15:40J. Manson14:45
Pair 3S. Girard16:39I. Solovyov16:43

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamParker Kelly COL Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 2.6, COL 3.8OTT 2, COL 8
Total goals6.410
Shots on goalOTT 25.7, COL 31.5OTT 31, COL 34
Win chanceCOL 69%COL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon4.351.65445%1
OTT B. Tkachuk3.570.62127%1
COL V. Nichushkin2.810.95037%0
COL C. Makar2.811.14326%1
COL B. Nelson2.621.01338%2
COL M. Necas2.521.16232%1
OTT T. Stützle2.300.80026%0
OTT D. Cozens2.230.51019%0
COL A. Lehkonen2.240.75030%0
OTT D. Batherson2.230.65024%0
OTT J. Sanderson2.020.5119%0
OTT S. Pinto1.830.45121%1
COL B. Burns1.850.4019%1
COL R. Colton1.740.42318%0
OTT C. Giroux1.610.51118%0
COL S. Malinski1.610.3717%0
OTT T. Chabot1.620.4008%0
OTT R. Greig1.620.30013%0
COL V. Olofsson1.500.42019%0
OTT F. Zetterlund1.510.27013%0
COL J. Manson1.450.3648%2
OTT D. Perron1.410.37016%0
COL G. Brindley1.400.39016%0
OTT M. Amadio1.200.31015%0
COL J. Drury1.220.33113%0
COL P. Kelly1.220.27012%0
COL S. Girard1.000.3306%0
OTT J. Spence0.940.2403%0
OTT A. Zub0.900.1904%0
OTT T. Kleven0.910.1112%0
OTT L. Eller0.910.1708%0
OTT N. Cousins0.800.1607%0
COL I. Solovyov0.800.1612%0
OTT N. Matinpalo0.700.1002%0
COL Z. Bardakov0.700.2317%0
COL I. Ivan0.600.1609%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.