Game Recap: OTT 1, DAL 6, November 30, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT1

FinalSun, Nov 30, 2025Every game that night

DAL6

DAL beat OTT 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.00 expected goals to 2.12. DAL outshot OTT 26 to 16. W. Johnston scored three for DAL. C. DeSmith stopped 15 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
OTT	0	1	0	1
DAL	0	3	3	6

2nd 1:58DALM. Bourque0.08 xG
2nd 8:36OTTJ. Sanderson0.11 xG
2nd 9:20DALJ. Robertson0.18 xG
2nd 15:33DALW. Johnston0.20 xG
3rd 2:52DALW. JohnstonPP0.32 xG
3rd 7:24DALJ. Benn0.26 xG
3rd 15:41DALW. JohnstonPP0.21 xG

Team Stats

OTTDAL

16Shots on goal26

2.12Expected goals3.00

47Shot attempts36

155v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play2/4

31Hits21

9Blocked shots11

10Penalty minutes8

18Giveaways14

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.12 xGDAL 3.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT16 on goal, 1 scored

DAL26 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Perron	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:43	2:20
N. Cousins	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	11:56	0:00
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	18:51	1:12
T. Stützle	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-3	0	18:15	3:44
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:27	2:35
M. Amadio	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	4	15:49	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	15:44	1:53
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-2	0	15:00	3:13
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	14:27	3:05
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	4	13:31	3:20
L. Eller	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:25	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	12:24	0:59
J. Sanderson	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	22:37	3:34
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	19:04	0:05
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	18:53	0:06
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	18:29	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-3	2	18:23	2:04
N. Jensen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Ullmark	26	20	6	.769	60:00	Loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	3	1	4	4	0	0	+1	0	17:56	2:40
J. Robertson	LW	1	2	3	2	0	0	+2	0	18:20	3:22
M. Rantanen	RW	0	3	3	3	0	0	+1	0	17:41	3:35
R. Hintz	C	0	2	2	2	1	0	0	2	12:22	1:32
J. Benn	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	14:36	2:42
M. Bourque	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+2	0	13:33	1:56
O. Bäck	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	12:14	0:00
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	15:54	3:41
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:24	0:10
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:10	0:13
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	13:10	0:04
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:44	0:02
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	19:08	0:10
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+3	0	26:01	1:49
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+3	2	24:44	2:48
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	20:07	0:03
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	17:25	2:53
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	16	15	1	.938	60:00	Win
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1M. Amadio15:49S. Pinto14:28C. Giroux12:11

Line 2F. Zetterlund11:25D. Cozens10:11B. Tkachuk11:47

Line 3T. Stützle11:49D. Batherson11:22L. Eller9:14

Line 4N. Cousins11:56D. Perron11:21R. Greig13:49

Pair 1N. Jensen16:54N. Matinpalo15:53

Pair 2J. Spence16:19T. Kleven15:50

Pair 3J. Sanderson16:11A. Zub15:51

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen13:44W. Johnston14:54J. Benn11:54

Line 2T. Seguin12:13J. Robertson14:58R. Hintz10:37

Line 3R. Faksa11:26S. Steel11:06C. Blackwell10:45

Line 4M. Bourque11:37J. Hryckowian11:27O. Bäck10:28

Pair 1E. Lindell19:09M. Heiskanen19:03

Pair 2K. Capobianco14:10I. Lyubushkin16:20

Pair 3A. Petrovic19:33L. Bichsel8:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 2.7, DAL 3.1	OTT 1, DAL 6
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	OTT 26.9, DAL 25.9	OTT 16, DAL 26
Win chance	DAL 56%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.5	2	0.71	0	28%	0
DAL J. Robertson	3.2	2	1.12	3	38%	1
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	4	0.82	4	33%	3
OTT J. Sanderson	2.4	1	0.55	1	9%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	3	1.02	3	33%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.3	2	0.90	2	33%	0
OTT D. Batherson	2.2	1	0.75	0	25%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.2	1	0.87	0	26%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.2	2	0.75	0	12%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.2	1	0.61	0	26%	0
OTT D. Cozens	2.1	1	0.55	0	20%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.9	1	0.70	0	27%	0
OTT F. Zetterlund	1.7	0	0.36	0	16%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.7	1	0.63	0	20%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	2	0.41	0	15%	0
OTT T. Kleven	1.4	0	0.16	0	4%	0
OTT M. Amadio	1.3	3	0.41	0	19%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.3	2	0.33	1	14%	1
DAL J. Benn	1.3	2	0.47	1	17%	1
OTT D. Perron	1.3	1	0.43	1	17%	0
OTT J. Spence	1.3	0	0.34	0	5%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	1.3	1	0.25	0	5%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	1	0.34	0	8%	0
OTT L. Eller	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	1	0.36	0	13%	0
OTT A. Zub	1.1	1	0.25	0	5%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	1.1	0	0.15	0	3%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	1	0.36	0	11%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	1	0.25	0	11%	0
OTT N. Cousins	0.9	1	0.21	1	9%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	0	0.20	0	6%	0
OTT N. Jensen	0.8	0	0.17	0	3%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	0	0.26	0	8%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.7	1	0.19	0	5%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	0	0.18	1	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	2	0.25	1	9%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.