Game Recap: OTT 2, DET 3 (OT), January 7, 2025

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Game Recap

OTT2

Final/OTTue, Jan 7, 2025Every game that night

DET3

DET beat OTT 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.70 expected goals to 2.24. D. Larkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Chabot had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. C. Talbot stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
OTT	0	2	0	0	2
DET	1	0	1	1	3

1st 8:30DETD. LarkinPP0.20 xG
2nd 12:25OTTT. Chabot0.02 xG
2nd 19:05OTTB. TkachukPP0.05 xG
3rd 5:00DETJ. Veleno0.32 xG
OT 2:21DETP. KanePP0.11 xG

Team Stats

OTTDET

33Shots on goal33

2.24Expected goals2.70

64Shot attempts66

305v5 shots on goal26

1/2Power play2/3

28Hits18

15Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways13

10Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 2.24 xGDET 2.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT32 on goal, 2 scored

DET33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Stützle	C	0	1	1	4	3	1	0	0	20:04	2:37
B. Tkachuk	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	4	17:17	2:36
N. Cousins	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	17:13	0:07
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	20:02	2:38
D. Batherson	RW	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	19:34	2:46
S. Pinto	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	18:25	0:17
C. Giroux	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:57	0:00
R. Greig	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	0	17:07	0:15
N. Gregor	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	10:47	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:31	0:00
J. Jenik	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:32	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	7:21	0:00
T. Chabot	D	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	23:56	0:18
J. Sanderson	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	2	22:33	2:35
N. Jensen	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	21:39	0:16
A. Zub	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	21:50	0:00
T. Kleven	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	15:57	0:00
N. Matinpalo	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	14:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	33	30	3	.909	62:03	OT loss
L. Meriläinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	0	18:52	2:27
P. Kane	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	19:13	2:31
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:12	2:28
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:17	2:17
J. Veleno	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	12:15	0:00
T. Motte	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	10:09	0:00
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:26	1:04
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	17:19	0:04
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:46	0:02
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:00	1:01
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	14:06	0:59
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	9:36	1:07
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	3	0	4	+1	2	18:15	0:05
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	3	2	4	0	0	25:43	2:39
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	21:05	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:05	0:55
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	18:26	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	16:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	10	10	0	1.000	20:00
C. Talbot	23	21	2	.913	42:21	Win

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex DeBrincat DET Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20231 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	OTT 3.1, DET 3.1	OTT 2, DET 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	OTT 29.1, DET 26.7	OTT 33, DET 33
Win chance	DET 51%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
OTT B. Tkachuk	3.8	3	0.94	1	34%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.8	4	0.95	2	35%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	2.4	1	0.76	1	29%	0
DET P. Kane	2.2	4	0.75	1	24%	1
OTT T. Chabot	2.2	5	0.58	1	12%	1
OTT D. Batherson	2.1	2	0.80	0	26%	0
OTT S. Pinto	2.1	1	0.50	0	21%	0
OTT T. Stützle	2.0	4	0.94	1	27%	0
OTT J. Norris	2.0	3	0.65	0	32%	0
DET L. Raymond	1.9	2	0.87	1	29%	0
OTT C. Giroux	1.9	1	0.71	0	25%	0
OTT J. Sanderson	1.8	3	0.50	1	8%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.8	2	0.58	0	24%	0
DET M. Seider	1.7	3	0.61	0	10%	0
OTT R. Greig	1.5	2	0.42	0	18%	0
OTT N. Cousins	1.5	0	0.32	1	13%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.4	1	0.40	0	19%	0
OTT N. Gregor	1.3	0	0.22	0	11%	0
OTT A. Gaudette	1.3	1	0.33	0	16%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	0	0.28	0	7%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	2	0.52	0	19%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.2	2	0.21	0	10%	0
DET T. Motte	1.1	1	0.19	1	11%	0
DET A. Copp	1.1	2	0.42	0	15%	0
OTT N. Jensen	1.1	2	0.30	1	5%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	1	0.36	0	15%	0
DET J. Veleno	1.0	2	0.31	1	14%	1
OTT A. Zub	1.0	3	0.26	0	6%	0
OTT J. Jenik	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.0	3	0.33	1	10%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	0.9	1	0.33	0	6%	0
OTT T. Kleven	0.8	0	0.11	0	3%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	1	0.11	0	3%	0
OTT Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	2	0.14	0	6%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	1	0.19	0	3%	0
OTT N. Matinpalo	0.4	1	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.